San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction For 8/7/2024

San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Details

• Date: August 7, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael King - Padres
  • Marco Gonzales - Pirates

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The upcoming matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the San Diego Padres on August 7, 2024, presents an interesting dynamic as the two teams square off again. The Padres currently hold a 61-52 record, sitting firmly in the playoff race, while the Pirates, at 56-55, are having an average season but are unlikely to contend.

In their previous game, the Padres triumphed over the Pirates, showcasing their offensive prowess. San Diego enters this matchup with the 9th best offense in MLB, highlighted by a stellar .274 team batting average that ranks 1st. Meanwhile, the Pirates have struggled, ranking 28th in overall offense. Their lack of firepower poses a significant challenge against a strong Padres pitching staff.

Marco Gonzales gets the nod for Pittsburgh, boasting a respectable ERA of 3.72 this season. However, his advanced stats suggest he may be due for regression, especially as he faces a high-powered Padres lineup. Gonzales has been a low-strikeout pitcher, which will not bode well against a Padres offense that excels at making contact. This combination gives San Diego an edge, especially considering they rank 2nd in Power Rankings for their bullpen, a stark contrast to the Pirates' average 13th place.

On the flip side, Michael King will take the mound for San Diego, bringing with him a 3.26 ERA and a robust 28.0% strikeout rate. King’s ability to dominate a Pirates lineup that ranks 5th most in strikeouts is an encouraging sign for the Padres. As the projections suggest, the odds favor San Diego securing another victory in this critical series.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Given the 0.42 difference between Michael King's 10.42 K/9 and his 10.01 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball this year as it relates to strikeouts and figures to see worse results in the future.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 89.6-mph average last season has fallen to 87.1-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Projected catcher Kyle Higashioka profiles as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Out of all starters, Marco Gonzales's fastball velocity of 89.2 mph ranks in the 4th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (35.5) implies that Oneil Cruz has experienced some negative variance this year with his 24.9 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Pittsburgh's 89-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in the game: #10 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 41 of their last 70 games (+11.70 Units / 13% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 48 away games (+13.85 Units / 21% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.45 Units / 35% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 5.04 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.12

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