San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction For 8/6/2024

San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Details

• Date: August 6, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dylan Cease - Padres
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face off against the San Diego Padres on August 6, 2024, both teams are looking to make a statement in this National League matchup. The Pirates, currently sitting at 56-55, have had an average season and are hoping to gain momentum against a strong Padres team, which boasts a record of 61-52 and has been performing above average. This game marks the beginning of their series, with both teams eager to set the tone.

Our projections indicate that the Pirates' starting pitcher, Bailey Falter, is ranked as the 217th best starting pitcher in MLB, which is a concerning statistic for Pittsburgh fans. Conversely, the Padres’ Dylan Cease is having a stellar season, rated as the 12th best starting pitcher, and has proven to be elite with a 3.42 ERA.

The matchup presents an intriguing dynamic: Falter, a left-handed pitcher, will face a Padres offense that ranks 1st in MLB in team batting average, while Cease’s high strikeout rate (32.3 K%) may exploit the Pirates’ own struggles, as they rank 5th in the league for most strikeouts. Additionally, the Pirates’ offense is ranked 28th, indicating a significant disadvantage against the Padres’ robust lineup, which ranks 9th overall.

With the Game Total set at an average 8.0 runs, the betting odds favor the Padres with a moneyline of -160, while the Pirates sit as underdogs at +140. This matchup is crucial for both teams as they look to assert their dominance early in the series.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Dylan Cease’s fastball velocity over his last 3 starts (97.4 mph) has been significantly higher than than his seasonal rate (96.4 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Kyle Higashioka has strong power (91st percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (27.7% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Bailey Falter is a pitch-to-contact type (23rd percentile K%) — great news for Higashioka.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Kyle Higashioka (the Padres's expected catcher today) grades out as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Bailey Falter to be on a pitch count in today's game, projecting a maximum of 81 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa's average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 88.8-mph average last season has dropped to 85.3-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 8.6% Barrel% of the Pittsburgh Pirates grades them out as the #9 offense in MLB this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 50 of their last 89 games (+10.85 Units / 10% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 34 of their last 52 away games (+16.40 Units / 23% ROI)
• Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 24 games (+7.55 Units / 28% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.95 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 3.86

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