San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers Best Bet – 4/17/2024

San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Overview

• Date: April 17, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael King - Padres
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers
• Run Line: Padres -1.5 (+146), Brewers +1.5 (-176)
• Money Line: Padres -118, Brewers +100
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• San Diego Padres - 54.13%
• Milwaukee Brewers - 50.00%

Projected Win %:

• San Diego Padres - 41.91%
• Milwaukee Brewers - 58.09%

San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Game Preview & Prediction

On April 17, 2024, the Milwaukee Brewers will face off against the San Diego Padres in an exciting National League matchup at American Family Field. The Brewers, with a season record of 10-6, are having a great season, while the Padres hold a solid record of 11-9.

The Brewers are set to start Freddy Peralta, a talented right-handed pitcher who has been performing exceptionally well this year. Peralta has started three games, boasting a perfect 2-0 win/loss record and an impressive ERA of 2.55. Despite his already impressive numbers, Peralta's 1.89 SIERA suggests that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform even better going forward.

Opposing Peralta on the mound will be Michael King, a right-handed pitcher for the Padres. King has also started three games this season and holds a 2-0 record. However, his ERA of 4.19 indicates that he has been slightly above average. Additionally, his 5.23 xFIP suggests that he has been fortunate and may not perform as well in the future.

According to projections, Peralta is expected to pitch an average of 5.7 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs and striking out 6.7 batters. However, he is projected to allow 4.5 hits and 1.6 walks, which are areas for improvement. On the other hand, King is projected to pitch an average of 5.0 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs and striking out 5.3 batters. However, his projections indicate potential struggles, as he is expected to allow 4.8 hits and 1.9 walks.

In terms of offensive performance, the Brewers rank as the second-best team in MLB this season, showcasing their underlying talent. However, their team batting average is currently ranked 27th, which is a surprising contrast. The Padres, on the other hand, rank as the fifth-best team in MLB, highlighting their strong offensive capabilities. However, their team batting average ranks 20th.

It's important to note that while the Brewers are having a successful season, the Padres are not far behind. This matchup promises to be an exciting clash between two competitive teams. With Peralta's impressive performance and the Brewers' strong offensive ranking, they may have the advantage in this game. However, the Padres' offensive capabilities and solid bullpen cannot be underestimated.

As the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X projects the Brewers to have a higher win probability than the implied win probability, making them a favorable choice for sports bettors. However, as with any game, anything can happen on the field, and fans can expect an intense battle between these two teams.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Michael King will post an average of 15.1 outs in today's outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Manny Machado has been hot of late, bashing 2 homers in the past 7 days.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

The San Diego Padres bullpen projects as the 6th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

As it relates to his strikeout skill, Freddy Peralta projects as the 4th-best starter in the majors right now, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

When it comes to his home runs, Jake Bauers has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His 25.4 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a fair amount lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 34.5.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 97 games (+10.05 Units / 8% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 71 of their last 132 games (+13.55 Units / 9% ROI)

Padres vs Brewers Prediction: Padres 3.88 - Brewers 4.35

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