San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers Best Bet – 4/15/2024

San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Overview

• Date: April 15, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joe Musgrove - Padres
  • Joe Ross - Brewers
• Run Line: Padres -1.5 135, Brewers 1.5 -155
• Money Line: Padres -120, Brewers 100
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• San Diego Padres - 52%
• Milwaukee Brewers - 48%

Projected Win %:

• San Diego Padres - 52.32%
• Milwaukee Brewers - 47.68%

San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Game Preview & Prediction

The Milwaukee Brewers are set to host the San Diego Padres in an exciting National League matchup at American Family Field on April 15, 2024. The Brewers, with a season record of 10-4, have been having a great season so far. On the other hand, the Padres hold a 9-9 record, which can be considered average.

The Brewers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Joe Ross, who has had a solid start to the season. Ross has started two games, with a 1-0 win/loss record and an impressive 1.80 ERA. However, his 4.35 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could face challenges in future performances. In contrast, the Padres are expected to start right-handed pitcher Joe Musgrove, who has had a rough start to the season. Musgrove has started four games, with a 1-2 win/loss record and a high 6.87 ERA. Despite this, his 4.78 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and could improve going forward.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Musgrove is ranked as the 35th best starting pitcher in MLB, while Ross is ranked at 172. This suggests that Musgrove is performing well, while Ross has room for improvement.

The Brewers have an impressive offense, ranking as the second-best in MLB this season. However, their team batting average is only 27th in the league, indicating that their underlying talent may be better than their actual performance. The Padres also have a strong offense, ranking eighth-best in MLB. Their team batting average is 20th, suggesting room for improvement as well.

In terms of bullpen strength, our Power Rankings consider the Padres to have the fourth-best bullpen in MLB, while the Brewers rank ninth. This could be a factor to watch as the game progresses.

The Brewers' best hitter this season has been Christian Yelich, while the Padres' top performer has been Jose Azocar over the last seven games. Yelich has recorded five hits, seven RBIs, and two home runs with a batting average of .385 and an impressive 1.423 OPS in the last week. Azocar has maintained a perfect batting average of 1.000 and a 2.000 OPS in his last four games.

In terms of the betting market, the Brewers are currently listed at +110 with a 46% implied win probability, while the Padres are listed at -130 with a 54% implied win probability. This suggests that the game is expected to be a close one.

Considering the projections, the Brewers have an average implied team total of 4.05 runs, while the Padres have a higher implied team total of 4.45 runs.

Overall, this game promises an exciting matchup between two teams with different strengths and weaknesses. The Brewers' strong record and offense, combined with Ross' solid performances, may give them an edge. However, the Padres' strong offense and Musgrove's potential for improvement could make this a closely contested game.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Among all starters, Joe Musgrove's fastball spin rate of 2580.2 rpm grades out in the 99th percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

This season, there has been a decline in Manny Machado's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.25 ft/sec last year to 25.02 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Joe Ross will record an average of 4.2 strikeouts today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

In terms of his home runs, Jake Bauers has been unlucky since the start of last season. His 25.5 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been deflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 34.5.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The underlying talent of the Milwaukee Brewers projected batting order today (.312 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount worse than their .360 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Padres vs Brewers Prediction: Padres 4.49 - Brewers 4.03

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.