San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins Prediction For 8/11/2024

San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Details

• Date: August 11, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dylan Cease - Padres
  • Max Meyer - Marlins

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres face off against the Miami Marlins at LoanDepot Park on August 11, 2024, both teams are coming off conflicting momentum in their last games. The Padres continue to showcase their status as a playoff contender with a solid record of 66-52, while the Marlins sit way back at 43-75, finding themselves mired in a rough season. This series has seen the Padres establishing their dominance, and with their superior performance, they enter as considerable favorites once again.

Projected starters Max Meyer for the Marlins and Dylan Cease for the Padres represent a stark contrast in form. Meyer has struggled this year with a 5.10 ERA, ranking him 137th among starting pitchers, signaling average or below performances. In contrast, Cease has delivered an impressive 3.40 ERA, making him the 12th best pitcher in the league, which showcases his elite status.

The Marlins offense has been the 29th best this season, and they rank last in home runs with just 85, which suggests they will struggle against Cease's flyball-heavy approach. Conversely, the Padres boast the 9th best offense and lead the league in batting average, which should help them capitalize on the opportunities provided by Meyer’s pitching difficulties.

The projections favor the Padres with an implied team total of 4.35 runs compared to the Marlins' low 3.15. Given the disparity in team performance and player matchups, the odds seem to align with the expectations that San Diego will come out on top once again in this matchup.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Dylan Cease has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an additional 10.6 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Over the last week, Xander Bogaerts's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.5% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 6th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Max Meyer's high usage percentage of his secondary pitches (58.9% this year) should work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jesus Sanchez has seen a big gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.4-mph average to last season's 90.3-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Miami Marlins have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jake Burger, Derek Hill, Kyle Stowers).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 26 games (+15.55 Units / 48% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 58 away games (+16.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 21 away games (+9.60 Units / 44% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.74 vs Miami Marlins 3.48

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