San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Pick & Prediction – 4/12/2024

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Overview

• Date: April 12, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael King - Padres
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Dodgers
• Run Line: Padres 1.5 -130, Dodgers -1.5 110
• Money Line: Padres 165, Dodgers -190
• Total (Over/Under):8 -110

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• San Diego Padres - 37%
• Los Angeles Dodgers - 63%

Projected Win %:

• San Diego Padres - 34.17%
• Los Angeles Dodgers - 65.83%

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated National League West matchup, the Los Angeles Dodgers are set to take on the San Diego Padres at Dodger Stadium on April 12, 2024. The Dodgers, with a record of 10-5, are having a great season so far, while the Padres, with a record of 7-8, are experiencing a below-average season.

The Dodgers will be the home team for this game, and they are expected to start Yoshinobu Yamamoto, a right-handed pitcher. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Yamamoto is ranked as the 7th best starting pitcher in MLB, making him an elite player. He has started three games this year, with a win-loss record of 1-1 and an ERA of 4.09. However, his 2.89 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the other side, the Padres will send Michael King, also a right-handed pitcher, to the mound. King is ranked as the 38th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our Power Rankings, indicating that he is a good player. He has started two games this year, with a perfect win-loss record of 2-0 and an impressive ERA of 3.14. However, his 5.13 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky this season and may not perform as well in the future.

The Dodgers have a strong offense, ranking as the 2nd best in MLB this season. They excel in home runs, ranking 2nd in the league, but their stolen bases rank 20th. The Padres, on the other hand, have a good offense, ranking 8th in MLB. They perform well in home runs and stolen bases, ranking 10th and 7th, respectively.

Based on the current odds, the Dodgers are the clear favorites to win this game, with a moneyline of -195 and an implied win probability of 64%. The Padres, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +165 and an implied win probability of 36%.

With the projected win probability in favor of the Dodgers, their strong offense, and Yamamoto's elite pitching, they have a good chance of securing a victory in this matchup. However, King's solid performance and the Padres' competitive offense cannot be overlooked, making this an exciting game to watch.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Michael King in the 88th percentile when estimating his strikeout ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

In the past two weeks, Fernando Tatis Jr.'s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 101.8-mph over the course of the season to 107.3-mph of late.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Projected catcher Luis Campusano grades out as a horrible pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Yoshinobu Yamamoto was rolling in his last outing and accumulated 8 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

When assessing his batting average skill, Freddie Freeman is projected as the 3rd-best batter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen ranks as the 9th-best in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 81 of their last 145 games (+17.00 Units / 11% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 74 of their last 139 games (+13.40 Units / 9% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: San Diego Padres 4 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.32

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