San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies Prediction For 8/16/2024

• Date: August 16, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matt Waldron - Padres
  • Cal Quantrill - Rockies

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres visit Coors Field to face the Colorado Rockies on August 16, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Rockies, with a record of 44-78, have significantly underperformed this season, while the Padres boast a solid 69-53 record, positioning them as one of the contenders in the National League West.

In their last games, the Padres showcased their offensive prowess, winning their most recent outing against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Meanwhile, the Rockies are struggling to find consistency, as evidenced by a loss in their most recent game against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Padres have the 8th best offense in MLB and rank 1st in batting average, which has helped them secure victories even against tougher opponents. On the other hand, Colorado's offense is average at best, ranking 17th overall.

On the mound, Cal Quantrill is slated to start for the Rockies. Despite his average ERA of 4.56, Quantrill’s Power Rankings position as the 199th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350 indicates he has struggled this year. He projects to pitch around 4.8 innings, allowing an average of 3.1 earned runs, which could put Colorado in a tough spot early on. In contrast, Matt Waldron takes the hill for San Diego. Even though his overall performance hasn’t been stellar either, Waldron's ERA is slightly better at 4.00. His projection shows he can pitch 5.0 innings while giving up 3.3 earned runs, which could be just enough to secure a win against a struggling Rockies lineup.

With a game total set at 11.0 runs, bettors are anticipating a slugfest, especially given that Colorado's offense has been able to string together hits, even if inconsistently. With the Rockies as heavy underdogs at a moneyline of +155, the Padres are the clear favorites to take the first game of this series.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Among all SPs, Matt Waldron's fastball velocity of 90 mph is in the 11th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Kyle Higashioka has strong power (90th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (27.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Cal Quantrill has a pitch-to-contact profile (25th percentile K%) — great news for Higashioka.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Kyle Higashioka, the Padres's expected catcher today, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Cal Quantrill has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 3.4 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Charlie Blackmon has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84-mph dropping to 79.1-mph over the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies' bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst among all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 games at home (+6.50 Units / 31% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 25 games (+14.10 Units / 39% ROI)
• Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 28 of his last 39 games (+11.80 Units / 20% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 6.45 vs Colorado Rockies 5.62

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