San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies Prediction For 4/23/2024

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Overview

• Date: April 23, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael King - Padres
  • Ryan Feltner - Rockies
• Run Line: Padres -1.5 -110, Rockies 1.5 -110
• Money Line: Padres -165, Rockies 140
• Total (Over/Under): 10.5

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• San Diego Padres - 60%
• Colorado Rockies - 40%

Projected Win %:

• San Diego Padres - 52.46%
• Colorado Rockies - 47.54%

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Game Preview & Prediction

On April 23, 2024, the Colorado Rockies will face off against the San Diego Padres in a National League West matchup at Coors Field. The Rockies, who are having a terrible season with a record of 5-18, will be the home team, while the Padres, having an above-average season with a record of 13-12, will be the away team.

The Rockies are projected to start right-handed pitcher Ryan Feltner, who has a 1-2 win/loss record and an ERA of 5.06 this season. Despite his struggles, Feltner's advanced-stat Power Rankings place him as the #96 best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting he is an average pitcher. However, his 3.75 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

The Padres will counter with right-handed pitcher Michael King, who has a 2-1 win/loss record and an impressive ERA of 3.33 this season. King ranks as the #43 best starting pitcher in MLB according to the advanced-stat Power Rankings, indicating that he is a good pitcher. However, his 4.34 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and may regress in future performances.

In terms of team performance, the Rockies offense ranks as the #23 best in MLB, while the Padres offense ranks as the #7 best. The Rockies have struggled in several categories, ranking poorly in team batting average (#18), home runs (#24), and stolen bases (#30). On the other hand, the Padres have excelled, particularly in team home runs (#10) and stolen bases (#7).

Looking at the implied win probabilities, the Rockies are considered underdogs with a 41% chance of winning, while the Padres are the favorites with a 59% chance. The Game Total is set at 10.5 runs, indicating an expected high-scoring game.

Considering the pitching matchup, Feltner's struggles and King's solid performance, the Padres have the advantage on the mound. However, the Rockies' offense will need to step up against King, who is known for his control issues. The game could be a high-scoring affair given the team's offensive rankings.

As the game gets underway, it will be interesting to see if the Rockies can overcome their struggles and challenge the Padres, or if the Padres will continue their above-average season and secure another win.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Michael King has averaged 94.8 adjusted pitches per outing this year, grading out in the 83rd percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Kyle Higashioka has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (99% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 7th-best batter in baseball.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

When it comes to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Ryan Feltner in the 78th percentile among all SPs in the game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Today’s version of the Rockies projected offense is weaker than usual, as their .298 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .313 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 41 of their last 74 games (+11.10 Units / 14% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 26 games (+11.45 Units / 29% ROI)

Padres vs Rockies Prediction: Padres 5.21 - Rockies 4.66

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.