San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies Pick & Prediction – 4/24/2024

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Overview

• Date: April 24, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matt Waldron - Padres
  • Ty Blach - Rockies
• Money Line: Padres -172, Rockies +144

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• San Diego Padres - 63.24%
• Colorado Rockies - 40.98%

Projected Win %:

• San Diego Padres - 54.71%
• Colorado Rockies - 45.29%

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Game Preview & Prediction

In a National League West matchup, the Colorado Rockies will host the San Diego Padres on April 24, 2024, at Coors Field. The Rockies, who have struggled this season with a record of 6-18, will look to turn their fortunes around against the Padres, who currently hold a 13-13 record and are having an average season.

The Rockies are projected to start left-handed pitcher Ty Blach, who has been ranked as the 305th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Blach has had a tough season, averaging 4.5 innings pitched and allowing 3.6 earned runs per game. He is projected to strike out 2.4 batters and allow 6.8 hits and 1.3 walks on average.

On the other side, the Padres are expected to start right-handed pitcher Matt Waldron. Waldron has started four games this season, with a win/loss record of 0-2 and an ERA of 4.74. However, his 3.79 FIP suggests that he has been unlucky this year and is likely to perform better going forward. Waldron's projections indicate that he will pitch an average of 4.9 innings, allow 3.2 earned runs, strike out 4.1 batters, and allow 6.3 hits and 1.3 walks per game.

Offensively, the Rockies have struggled this season, ranking as the 24th best team in MLB. They have a below-average team batting average and rank poorly in home runs and stolen bases. In contrast, the Padres have a strong offense, ranking as the 7th best team in MLB. Although their team batting average is not impressive, they excel in home runs and stolen bases.

Considering the team's records, pitching projections, offensive rankings, and recent performances, the Padres appear to have the advantage going into this game. However, as with any baseball game, anything can happen on the field.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The San Diego Padres infield defense grades out as the 2nd-best among every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Cronenworth stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that the San Diego Padres will score 6.43 runs on average in this matchup: the most of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Ty Blach has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 13 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

San Diego's #3-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Sean Bouchard, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Compared to their .316 overall projected rate, the .297 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected batting order in today's game suggests this version of the lineup a fair amount weaker than usual.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 63 games at home (+9.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 73 of their last 136 games (+13.40 Units / 9% ROI)

Padres vs Rockies Prediction: Padres 6.43 - Rockies 5.54

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