San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies Best Bet – 4/22/2024

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Overview

• Date: April 22, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dylan Cease - Padres
  • Austin Gomber - Rockies
• Run Line: Padres -1.5 -120, Rockies 1.5 100
• Money Line: Padres -185, Rockies 160
• Total (Over/Under): 10.5

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• San Diego Padres - 63%
• Colorado Rockies - 37%

Projected Win %:

• San Diego Padres - 61.92%
• Colorado Rockies - 38.08%

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Game Preview & Prediction

In a National League West matchup, the Colorado Rockies will take on the San Diego Padres at Coors Field on April 22, 2024. The Rockies, who are having a terrible season with a record of 5-17, will be looking to bounce back against the Padres, who have had an average season with a record of 12-12.

The Rockies are projected to start left-handed pitcher Austin Gomber, who is ranked as the #223 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Gomber has started four games this year, with a win-loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 4.95. However, his 3.87 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the other hand, the Padres are projected to start right-handed pitcher Dylan Cease, who is ranked as the #22 best starting pitcher in MLB. Cease has started four games this year, with a win-loss record of 2-1 and an impressive ERA of 1.99. However, his 4.02 xFIP indicates that he has been lucky and may not perform as well in the future.

Gomber is expected to pitch around 4.7 innings on average today, while Cease is projected to go around 5.4 innings. Cease, with his high-strikeout ability (30.0 K%) going against the Rockies' offense, which strikes out a lot, could give him an advantage in this matchup. However, Gomber will face a low-walk Rockies offense, which may not be able to take advantage of his control issues.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Padres have the upper hand. They rank as the #9 best offense in MLB, while the Rockies rank #22. The Padres have a better team batting average (#20) and have hit more home runs (#10) and stolen more bases (#7) than the Rockies this season.

Both teams have solid bullpens according to our power rankings, with the Rockies ranked #9 and the Padres ranked #5 in MLB. This could make for an interesting battle in the late innings.

Based on the current odds, the Padres are the favorites to win this game with an implied win probability of 63%. However, the Rockies, with their high implied team total of 4.50 runs, will be determined to prove the odds wrong.

Overall, this game promises an intriguing matchup between the struggling Rockies and the average Padres. With solid pitching and a superior offense, the Padres have the edge, but the Rockies will be looking to turn their season around with a strong performance at home.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Dylan Cease projects as the 9th-best SP in MLB right now when assessing his strikeout ability, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Jackson Merrill has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Luis Campusano, the Padres's expected catcher in today's matchup, grades out as a horrible pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Among every team today, the best infield defense is that of the the Colorado Rockies.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Brenton Doyle is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of San Diego (#1-best of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Colorado Rockies bullpen projects as the 9th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 38 of their last 70 games (+9.00 Units / 12% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 71 of their last 132 games (+13.55 Units / 9% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+5.20 Units / 24% ROI)

Padres vs Rockies Prediction: Padres 6.44 - Rockies 4.71

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