San Diego Padres at Cleveland Guardians Best Bet – 7/19/2024

San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians Details

• Date: July 19, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matt Waldron - Padres
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians and San Diego Padres face off at Progressive Field on July 19, 2024, in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup. The Guardians are having a stellar season with a 58-37 record, while the Padres are hovering around average with a 50-49 record. This game could be pivotal for both teams as they look to solidify their standings.

The Guardians are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -140, giving them an implied win probability of 56%. Standing in their way is Padres pitcher Matt Waldron, who has struggled this season. Waldron's 5-8 record and 3.71 ERA suggest he’s been fortunate, as indicated by his 4.34 xFIP. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects Waldron to allow 2.8 earned runs over 5.5 innings, with a low strikeout count of just 3.5 batters. This could spell trouble against a Guardians offense that ranks 10th in MLB for home runs and 9th for stolen bases.

On the mound for the Guardians is Tanner Bibee, who has been impressive with a 7-4 record and a 3.77 ERA. His advanced metrics suggest he’s been unlucky, as his 3.27 SIERA indicates better performance ahead. Bibee is projected to allow just 2.3 earned runs over 5.7 innings. However, he faces a Padres offense that ranks 2nd in team batting average and 10th in home runs, making this a challenging matchup.

Cleveland's bullpen, ranked 5th in the league, provides a significant advantage over San Diego's 11th-ranked bullpen. Both teams have capable offenses, but the Guardians' superior pitching depth and bullpen strength could be the difference-maker.

Given the Guardians' strong season and the Padres' inconsistency, Cleveland appears to have the upper hand. With a low game total of 7.5 runs, expect a tightly contested game where pitching will likely be the decisive factor.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

With 8 hitters who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Matt Waldron will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Cleveland Guardians have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so David Peralta can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Kyle Higashioka (the Padres's expected catcher in today's game) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The Cleveland Guardians infield defense grades out as the 3rd-best out of all the teams in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Despite posting a .398 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Steven Kwan has experienced some positive variance given the .087 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .311.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Cleveland Guardians bullpen grades out as the 5th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 89 games (+12.32 Units / 11% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 away games (+7.25 Units / 38% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 44 games (+19.65 Units / 40% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 3.93 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.43

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