San Diego Padres at Baltimore Orioles Pick & Prediction – 7/27/2024

San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles Details

• Date: July 27, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael King - Padres
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles host the San Diego Padres on July 27, 2024, both teams find themselves in intriguing positions. The Orioles, boasting a 61-42 record, are having a standout season and look like strong contenders. In contrast, the Padres, with a respectable 56-50 record, are still in the mix but need consistency to solidify their playoff hopes.

The pitching matchup sees Dean Kremer taking the mound for the Orioles against Michael King for the Padres. Kremer, a right-hander, has had an up-and-down season, reflected in his 4-6 record and 4.43 ERA. Though his ERA is average, his underlying metrics, including a 5.17 FIP, suggest he's been fortunate and could face some regression. On the other side, King, also a righty, has been stellar. His 3.28 ERA and 8-6 record make him the #25 best starting pitcher according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X.

Offensively, Baltimore's lineup has been one of the most potent in MLB. Ranking 3rd in the league overall, the Orioles also lead in home runs and are 7th in batting average. This firepower means they can change the game with a single swing, especially at the hitter-friendly Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Colton Cowser has been particularly hot, hitting .450 with a 1.242 OPS over the last week, which bodes well for Baltimore fans.

San Diego's offense, while not as explosive, still ranks a respectable 11th overall. They lead MLB in team batting average and have solid power, ranking 10th in home runs. Xander Bogaerts has been on fire, posting a .583 average and 1.240 OPS over the last seven games. This surge could be crucial against a pitcher like Kremer, who has shown vulnerability.

Bullpen performance could be the deciding factor in such a closely matched game. Baltimore’s bullpen ranks 17th, while San Diego's is slightly better at 11th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. The slight edge here might tip the scales in favor of the Padres, especially given King’s superior pitching metrics.

Betting odds reflect the tight nature of this contest, with both teams set at -110, implying a 50% win probability each. However, given Baltimore’s powerful offense and the hot streak from Cowser, they might just have the upper hand. Expect a high-scoring affair, with the Game Total set at 9.0 runs, and watch for the Orioles to leverage their home-field advantage in this crucial Interleague matchup.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Michael King has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 4.3 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Despite posting a .374 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jurickson Profar has had positive variance on his side given the .057 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .317.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Kyle Higashioka, the Padres's expected catcher today, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Dean Kremer has used his secondary offerings 5% more often this season (53.3%) than he did last year (48.3%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Ryan Mountcastle has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (88% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Baltimore Orioles hitters as a unit have been among the best in the league this year (2nd-) as it relates to their 89.9-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 56 games (+10.30 Units / 16% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 50 away games (+8.60 Units / 15% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 48 games (+12.30 Units / 12% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.6 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.49

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