San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks Best Bet – 9/29/2024

• Date: September 29, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Martin Perez - Padres
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres gear up for their third game of the series on September 29, 2024, both teams will be keen to make statements in this National League West matchup at Chase Field. The Padres, sitting on a stellar 93-68 record, are enjoying a great season and have their sights set on solidifying their playoff positioning. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks, with an above-average 88-73 record, are eager to capitalize on their home-field advantage.

On the mound, Arizona's Brandon Pfaadt, a right-hander ranked 69th in the Power Rankings, looks to continue his solid season. Despite a 4.80 ERA that suggests some struggles, his 3.65 xFIP indicates he's been a bit unlucky, hinting at potential for a bounce-back performance. He faces off against the Padres' southpaw Martin Perez, who holds a 4.25 ERA. However, with a 5.21 xERA suggesting he’s been fortunate, Perez may be in for a rough outing against the potent Diamondbacks lineup, which ranks 1st in overall offense.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks are firing on all cylinders, boasting the 1st-best offense and 2nd-best team batting average. Randal Grichuk has been a standout performer recently, with a staggering .667 batting average over the past week. Conversely, the Padres, while 5th in offensive rankings and leading in team batting average, have been slightly less explosive but still dangerous. Brandon Lockridge has been a key player, with a 1.250 OPS in the same period.

The betting market shows Arizona as significant favorites with a moneyline of -185, translating to an implied win probability of 63%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees this game as closer than the odds suggest, giving the Padres a 43% chance of victory, which is 6% more than the betting market's expectations. Given these dynamics, bettors might find value in backing the Padres as underdogs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Martin Perez has used his sinker 5.2% less often this year (35.6%) than he did last year (40.8%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Donovan Solano is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt’s fastball velocity over his last 3 games started (94.3 mph) has been significantly higher than than his seasonal rate (93.2 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Ketel Marte's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 93.8-mph now compared to just 91.1-mph then.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Josh Bell has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 3rd-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 73 of their last 119 games (+26.25 Units / 20% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 91 games (+18.65 Units / 15% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 22 games at home (+11.55 Units / 43% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.87 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.47

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.