San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks Best Bet – 9/28/2024

• Date: September 28, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres
  • Eduardo Rodriguez - D-Backs

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

In a pivotal National League West matchup, the Arizona Diamondbacks (88-72) will host the San Diego Padres (92-68) at Chase Field on September 28, 2024. Both teams are vying for playoff positioning, with the Padres having the upper hand in the standings. Notably, the Arizona offense has shown its prowess all season, ranking 1st in MLB overall—an elite unit complemented by the 2nd-best team batting average and 5th in home runs. Meanwhile, San Diego is no slouch offensively, boasting the 5th-best lineup, underscored by the highest team batting average.

Last night's tilt saw the Padres edge out the Diamondbacks with a 5-3 victory, setting the stage for a crucial rematch as Arizona looks to even the series. The Diamondbacks will send Eduardo Rodriguez to the mound. Despite a struggling 5.56 ERA this season, Rodriguez is ranked 67th among starting pitchers and boasts a more promising 4.19 xFIP, suggesting potential for better results. However, his recent form has been shaky, including a rough outing against the Padres on September 23, where he allowed 5 runs over 5 innings.

San Diego counters with Randy Vasquez, whose 5.18 ERA and even more concerning 6.16 xERA indicate vulnerability. His inconsistency was evident in his previous start on August 31, where he was tagged for 9 earned runs in just 4 innings. Despite these struggles, the Padres' bullpen, ranked 5th, offers reliable support.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives Arizona a slight edge with a 55% win probability, projecting the Diamondbacks to outscore the Padres with an average of 5.46 to 5.14 runs. Bettors may find this an intriguing angle, considering Arizona's potent offense and home-field advantage against a Padres team that, while strong, faces questions on the mound.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Jurickson Profar has been lucky this year, compiling a .366 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .323 — a .043 discrepancy.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen profiles as the 5th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Eduardo Rodriguez has averaged 93 adjusted pitches per GS this year, checking in at the 79th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Eugenio Suarez has big-time power (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (28.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Randy Vasquez doesn't generate many whiffs (23rd percentile K%) — great news for Suarez.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Today, Joc Pederson is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38% rate (96th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 63 of their last 98 games (+28.25 Units / 26% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 65 of their last 105 games (+15.35 Units / 10% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 5.14 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.46

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.