Mitch Keller Projections, Prop Bets & Odds

Strikeouts Prop Odds:

Strikeouts 4.5 over: -115

Strikeouts 4.5 under: -115

Trends Favoring The Over Strikeouts Prop

Mitch Keller has averaged 92.7 adjusted pitches per GS this year, grading out in the 82nd percentile.

Home field advantage generally boosts pitcher stats in all categories, and Mitch Keller will hold that advantage today.

Among all starters, Mitch Keller's fastball spin rate of 2402 rpm grades out in the 78th percentile this year.

Given the 1.07 discrepancy between Mitch Keller's 6.99 K/9 and his 8.06 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the least fortunate pitchers in Major League Baseball this year as it relates to strikeouts and ought to positively regress the rest of the season.

Trends Favoring The Under Strikeouts Shots Prop

PNC Park profiles as the #24 stadium in Major League Baseball for strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation generally leads to better offense.

High humidity has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate today at 75%.

The New York Mets have 6 bats in the projected offense that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller in today's game.

Mitch Keller's fastball velocity has fallen 1.2 mph this year (93.3 mph) below where it was last year (94.5 mph).

Mitch Keller is projected to have 4.3 Strikeouts in today's game.

Pitching Outs Prop Odds:

Pitching Outs 17.5 over: -118

Pitching Outs 17.5 under: -110

Trends Favoring The Over Pitching Outs Prop

Mitch Keller has averaged 92.7 adjusted pitches per GS this year, grading out in the 82nd percentile.

The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for hurlers.

The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest among every team on the slate today.

Home field advantage generally boosts pitcher stats in all categories, and Mitch Keller will hold that advantage today.

Trends Favoring The Under Pitching Outs Shots Prop

The 5th-best projected offense of the day in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the New York Mets.

It is likely that we will see a Hitters Umpire (Ben May) behind the plate in this game.

The weather forecast projects temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

The New York Mets have 6 bats in the projected offense that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller in today's game.

The 10.5% Barrel% of the New York Mets ranks them as the #3 team in the league this year by this standard.

Mitch Keller is projected to have 16.6 Pitching Outs in today's game.

Earned Runs Prop Odds:

Earned Runs 2.5 over: -125

Earned Runs 2.5 under: -105

Trends Favoring The Over Earned Runs Prop

The 5th-best projected offense of the day in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the New York Mets.

It is likely that we will see a Hitters Umpire (Ben May) behind the plate in this game.

The weather forecast projects temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

The New York Mets have 6 bats in the projected offense that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller in today's game.

The 10.5% Barrel% of the New York Mets ranks them as the #3 team in the league this year by this standard.

Trends Favoring The Under Earned Runs Shots Prop

The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for hurlers.

The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest among every team on the slate today.

Home field advantage generally boosts pitcher stats in all categories, and Mitch Keller will hold that advantage today.

Mitch Keller is projected to have 3.1 Earned Runs in today's game.