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Michael Lorenzen

Kansas City Royals

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Kansas City Royals

02:10 PM

Jun 26, 2025

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Tampa Bay Rays

  • Projections
  • Props

Earned Runs

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Earned Runs Prop Odds:

Earned Runs 3.5 over: 125

Earned Runs 3.5 under: -160

Trends Favoring The Over Earned Runs Prop

Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #1 venue in the league for walks, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 90°.

The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 17.3-mph in this game, the most-favorable of the day for bats.

Given that flyball batters have a significant advantage over groundball pitchers, Michael Lorenzen and his 35% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome position in today's matchup matching up with 4 opposing GB hitters.

Trends Favoring The Under Earned Runs Shots Prop

It may be smart to expect worse numbers for the Tampa Bay Rays offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

It is likely that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (D.J. Reyburn) behind the plate in this game.

Kauffman Stadium has the deepest right field fences among all major league parks.

Michael Lorenzen is an extreme flyball pitcher (35% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #30 HR venue among all parks today.

Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Kansas City Royals.

Michael Lorenzen is projected to have 3.1 Earned Runs in today's game.

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Pitching Outs

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Pitching Outs Prop Odds:

Pitching Outs 15.5 over: -152

Pitching Outs 15.5 under: 120

Trends Favoring The Over Pitching Outs Prop

Tallying 91.5 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Michael Lorenzen places him the 75th percentile.

It may be smart to expect worse numbers for the Tampa Bay Rays offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

It is likely that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (D.J. Reyburn) behind the plate in this game.

Kauffman Stadium has the deepest right field fences among all major league parks.

Michael Lorenzen is an extreme flyball pitcher (35% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #30 HR venue among all parks today.

Trends Favoring The Under Pitching Outs Shots Prop

Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #1 venue in the league for walks, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 90°.

The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 17.3-mph in this game, the most-favorable of the day for bats.

Given that flyball batters have a significant advantage over groundball pitchers, Michael Lorenzen and his 35% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome position in today's matchup matching up with 4 opposing GB hitters.

Michael Lorenzen is projected to have 16 Pitching Outs in today's game.

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Strikeouts

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Strikeouts Prop Odds:

Strikeouts 3.5 over: -152

Strikeouts 3.5 under: 120

Trends Favoring The Over Strikeouts Prop

Tallying 91.5 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Michael Lorenzen places him the 75th percentile.

It is likely that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (D.J. Reyburn) behind the plate in this game.

Home field advantage typically bolsters pitcher stats in all categories, and Michael Lorenzen will hold that advantage in today's game.

Michael Lorenzen was in good form in his previous GS and notched 7 strikeouts.

Michael Lorenzen's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (61.1% compared to 51.7% last year) ought to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

Trends Favoring The Under Strikeouts Shots Prop

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Kauffman Stadium as the 8th-worst park in the league for strikeouts.

Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 90°.

The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 17.3-mph in this game, the most-favorable of the day for bats.

Given that flyball batters have a significant advantage over groundball pitchers, Michael Lorenzen and his 35% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome position in today's matchup matching up with 4 opposing GB hitters.

Michael Lorenzen is projected to have 4 Strikeouts in today's game.

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Michael Lorenzen Player Prop Odds

Consensus DraftKings FanDuel BetMGM Caesars Fanatics
Hits Allowed
ov 5.5 (-145)
un 5.5 (106)
ov 5.5 (-145)
un 5.5 (105)
-
ov 5.5 (-155)
un 5.5 (110)
ov 5.5 (-137)
un 5.5 (100)
ov 5.5 (-150)
un 5.5 (115)
Total Earned Runs Allowed
ov 2.5 (-157)
un 2.5 (114)
ov 3.5 (120)
un 3.5 (-155)
-
ov 2.5 (-160)
un 2.5 (110)
ov 2.5 (-160)
un 2.5 (116)
ov 2.5 (-150)
un 2.5 (115)
Total Pitching Strikeouts
ov 3.5 (-153)
un 3.5 (115)
ov 3.5 (-145)
un 3.5 (110)
ov 3.5 (-152)
un 3.5 (120)
ov 3.5 (-150)
un 3.5 (115)
ov 3.5 (-154)
un 3.5 (112)
ov 3.5 (-160)
un 3.5 (120)
Walks Allowed
ov 1.5 (-152)
un 1.5 (108)
ov 1.5 (-150)
un 1.5 (105)
-
-
ov 1.5 (-154)
un 1.5 (112)
-

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