Luis Severino Projections, Prop Bets & Odds

Strikeouts Prop Odds:

Strikeouts 4.5 over: -118

Strikeouts 4.5 under: -108

Trends Favoring The Over Strikeouts Prop

Throwing 97.5 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Luis Severino checks in at the 95th percentile.

Home field advantage generally boosts pitcher stats across the board, and Luis Severino will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Luis Severino has utilized his cutter 8.7% more often this season (16.7%) than he did last season (8%).

Luis Severino's 95.2-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 86th percentile out of all starters.

Trends Favoring The Under Strikeouts Shots Prop

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 82°.

The Seattle Mariners have 7 hitters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over Luis Severino in this matchup.

Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Luis Severino (43.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today's game with 2 GB hitters in Seattle's projected offense.

Luis Severino is projected to have 4.4 Strikeouts in today's game.

Earned Runs Prop Odds:

Earned Runs 2.5 over: -120

Earned Runs 2.5 under: -110

Trends Favoring The Over Earned Runs Prop

Among all parks, Sutter Health Park has the lowest average fence height.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 82°.

The Seattle Mariners have 7 hitters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over Luis Severino in this matchup.

Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Luis Severino (43.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today's game with 2 GB hitters in Seattle's projected offense.

Among all the teams today, the 11th-worst outfield defense is that of the Athletics.

Trends Favoring The Under Earned Runs Shots Prop

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Seattle Mariners in today's game holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .315, which is significantly worse than their actual wOBA of .333 this year.

The Seattle Mariners have been the luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in future games

Sutter Health Park projects as the #27 venue in MLB for base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Sutter Health Park has the 6th-deepest LF dimensions among all major league parks.

Luis Severino is an extreme groundball pitcher (43.4% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Sutter Health Park — the #7 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in today's game.

Luis Severino is projected to have 3.1 Earned Runs in today's game.

Pitching Outs Prop Odds:

Pitching Outs 17.5 over: -115

Pitching Outs 17.5 under: -115

Trends Favoring The Over Pitching Outs Prop

Throwing 97.5 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Luis Severino checks in at the 95th percentile.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Seattle Mariners in today's game holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .315, which is significantly worse than their actual wOBA of .333 this year.

The Seattle Mariners have been the luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in future games

Sutter Health Park projects as the #27 venue in MLB for base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Sutter Health Park has the 6th-deepest LF dimensions among all major league parks.

Trends Favoring The Under Pitching Outs Shots Prop

Among all parks, Sutter Health Park has the lowest average fence height.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 82°.

The Seattle Mariners have 7 hitters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over Luis Severino in this matchup.

Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Luis Severino (43.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today's game with 2 GB hitters in Seattle's projected offense.

Among all the teams today, the 11th-worst outfield defense is that of the Athletics.

Luis Severino is projected to have 16.9 Pitching Outs in today's game.