Justin Verlander MLB projections and prop bets for Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians on Sep 28, 2024
Justin Verlander Player Prop Bet: Strikeouts
Strikeouts Prop Bet Odds:
- Strikeouts 4.5 over: 100
- Strikeouts 4.5 under: -128
Trends Favoring The Over Strikeouts Prop Bet
Justin Verlander has averaged 94.4 adjusted pitches per GS this year, placing in the 87th percentile.
It is scheduled that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (Jim Wolf) calling pitches in this game.
Given his large reverse platoon split, Justin Verlander should be in good shape matching up with 8 hitters in the projected offense who hit from the other side in this matchup.
Given that flyball pitchers have a notable edge over flyball hitters, Justin Verlander and his 41.4% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong position in this matchup being matched up with 3 opposing FB hitters.
Justin Verlander has gone to his change-up 5% more often this season (9.7%) than he did last year (4.7%).
Trends Favoring The Under Strikeouts Prop Bet
Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Cleveland Guardians with a 18.2% underlying K%.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Yainer Diaz (the Astros's expected catcher in today's game) is considered to be a weak pitch framer.
Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all major league parks, which often leads to more offense.
As far as temperature and humidity go, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.
Justin Verlander will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup.
Projection For Justin Verlander Strikeouts Prop Bet
Justin Verlander is projected to have 4.5 Strikeouts in this weeks game.
