Jack Leiter Projections, Prop Bets & Odds

Earned Runs Prop Odds:

Earned Runs 2.5 over: -120

Earned Runs 2.5 under: -115

Trends Favoring The Over Earned Runs Prop

The Cincinnati Reds have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in the game since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better going forward

Nic Lentz projects as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is expected to be in charge of the strike zone in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the best park in Major League Baseball for home runs.

In MLB, Great American Ball Park's RF fences are the 7th-shallowest.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report expects for the 5th-best hitting conditions of all games on the slate.

Trends Favoring The Under Earned Runs Shots Prop

The Cincinnati Reds projected batting order profiles as the 3rd-weakest on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability.

Jack Leiter performed well in his last outing and conceded 1 ER.

Jack Leiter's 96.3-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season grades out in the 94th percentile among all starting pitchers.

Jack Leiter has experienced some negative variance in regards to his ERA since the start of last season; his 7.97 rate is a fair amount higher than his 5.27 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

Jack Leiter has been one of the unluckiest mound aces in the majors on balls in play since the start of last season with a .337 BABIP and ought to see that luck normalize going forward.

Jack Leiter is projected to have 2.8 Earned Runs in today's game.

Strikeouts Prop Odds:

Strikeouts 4.5 over: -120

Strikeouts 4.5 under: -105

Trends Favoring The Over Strikeouts Prop

The Cincinnati Reds have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Blake Dunn).

Jack Leiter's 96.3-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season grades out in the 94th percentile among all starting pitchers.

Jack Leiter has been unlucky in regards to his strikeouts since the start of last season, compiling a 7.74 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.65 — a 0.91 K/9 disparity.

Placing in the 79th percentile, Jack Leiter put up a 12.4% Swinging Strike rate since the start of last season.

Trends Favoring The Under Strikeouts Shots Prop

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Jack Leiter is projected to throw 80 pitches in today's outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 4th-least on the slate.

Nic Lentz projects as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is expected to be in charge of the strike zone in today's game.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report expects for the 5th-best hitting conditions of all games on the slate.

Playing on the road typically weakens pitcher metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jack Leiter today.

Jack Leiter's high usage percentage of his fastball (53.9% since the start of last season) is likely harming his results, since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

Jack Leiter is projected to have 4.3 Strikeouts in today's game.