Corbin Burnes Projections, Prop Bets & Odds

Pitching Outs Prop Odds:

Pitching Outs 18.5 over: 145

Pitching Outs 18.5 under: -200

Trends Favoring The Over Pitching Outs Prop

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Corbin Burnes in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall pitching skills.

Corbin Burnes has averaged 96.8 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, checking in at the 87th percentile.

The Tampa Bay Rays have been the 9th-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse going forward

Nestor Ceja profiles as a Pitchers Umpire and is likely to be behind the plate in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the worst ballpark in the game for home runs.

Trends Favoring The Under Pitching Outs Shots Prop

The weather report expects the most favorable hitting weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

Among all starters, Corbin Burnes's fastball spin rate of 1805 rpm grades out in the 4th percentile since the start of last season.

Considering the 0.69 disparity between Corbin Burnes's 3.09 ERA and his 3.78 FIP, it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in MLB since the start of last season and should negatively regress the rest of the season.

Tampa Bay's 89.7-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in the majors: #9 overall.

Corbin Burnes is projected to have 17.8 Pitching Outs in today's game.

Strikeouts Prop Odds:

Strikeouts 5.5 over: 125

Strikeouts 5.5 under: -156

Trends Favoring The Over Strikeouts Prop

Corbin Burnes has averaged 96.8 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, checking in at the 87th percentile.

Nestor Ceja profiles as a Pitchers Umpire and is likely to be behind the plate in today's game.

Considering that groundball hitters are less effective against groundball pitchers, Corbin Burnes (46.4% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 4 GB hitters in the opposition's projected offense.

Home field advantage generally boosts pitcher stats in all categories, and Corbin Burnes will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Corbin Burnes was firing on all cylinders in his previous outing and notched 8 strikeouts.

Trends Favoring The Under Strikeouts Shots Prop

The Tampa Bay Rays (21.2 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the least strikeout-prone set of hitters on the slate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 3rd-worst venue in Major League Baseball for strikeouts.

Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude among all parks, which tends to lead to more offense.

The weather report expects the most favorable hitting weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

Among all starters, Corbin Burnes's fastball spin rate of 1805 rpm grades out in the 4th percentile since the start of last season.

Corbin Burnes is projected to have 5.3 Strikeouts in today's game.

Earned Runs Prop Odds:

Earned Runs 1.5 over: -180

Earned Runs 1.5 under: 130

Trends Favoring The Over Earned Runs Prop

The weather report expects the most favorable hitting weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

Among all starters, Corbin Burnes's fastball spin rate of 1805 rpm grades out in the 4th percentile since the start of last season.

Considering the 0.69 disparity between Corbin Burnes's 3.09 ERA and his 3.78 FIP, it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in MLB since the start of last season and should negatively regress the rest of the season.

Tampa Bay's 89.7-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in the majors: #9 overall.

Trends Favoring The Under Earned Runs Shots Prop

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Corbin Burnes in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall pitching skills.

The Tampa Bay Rays have been the 9th-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse going forward

Nestor Ceja profiles as a Pitchers Umpire and is likely to be behind the plate in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the worst ballpark in the game for home runs.

In Major League Baseball, Chase Field's CF fences are the 3rd-deepest.

Corbin Burnes is projected to have 2.2 Earned Runs in today's game.