Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals Prediction – 9/14/2025
The Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals will meet on Sunday with an early first pitch at Nationals Park. This is the final game of a three-game series between these National League teams. Both teams have taken a game so far in this series and will look to secure a series win with a victory. Here, I break down this Sunday morning game and bring you my Pirates vs Nationals prediction on the diamond.
Our Pirates vs Nationals Pick
- Pick: Under 8.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 14, 2025, 11:35 AM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Mike Burrows vs Cade Cavalli
- Stadium: Nationals Park, Washington, D.C.
- Broadcast: MASN, SportsNet Pittsburgh
Key Storylines
- The Pirates finally got out of the loss column again with a win on Saturday. They were in danger of falling 30 games below .500 on the road for the season entering Saturday’s game but got a 5-1 win in that contest.
- Most of the Pirates’ losses during their recent streak were by a run. They won by four runs yesterday in a game that was much less stressful than their recent defeats.
- Washington is struggling to the finish line this season. But they are two wins away from ensuring that they do not lose 100 games this season.
Pitching matchup
Mike Burrows is 2-4 with a 3.99 ERA in 85.2 innings of work. The right-hander’s strikeout rate sits a touch above 9.0 per nine innings, and he’s kept hard contact manageable with a balanced four-seam fastball/slider mix. Washington’s order carries swing-and-miss risk in the middle, which supports Burrows’ punchout upside. Cade Cavalli will get the start for the Nationals. He is 3-1 with a 4.67 ERA on the year.
Recent team streaks
- The Pirates ended a seven-game losing streak in their last outing.
- The Nats are losers of three out of their last four games.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| James Wood | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Mike Burrows | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 |
| Cade Cavalli | Strikeouts | Under 5.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Pirates lead the season series against the Nationals 4-2.
- This is the final game of the regular-season series between these two teams.
Pirates vs Nationals Model Projection
Score Projection: Pirates 4 – Nationals 3
Win Probability: Pirates 58%, Nationals 42%
Final Thoughts
It is hard to justify betting on either of these teams based on how they have played for most of this season. Instead of betting your hard-earned money on either side, I recommend betting the under in this contest. Neither starting pitcher is great, but they are both good enough to put a few zeroes on the board against a bad offensive opponent. I’ll lean primarily on the offensive struggles of both teams to help us stay under the total here.
