Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction, Odds & Picks – 5/31/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 31, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

On May 31, 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays will face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Rogers Centre. This Interleague matchup features the Blue Jays as the home team and the Pirates as the away team. Both teams are having below-average seasons, with the Blue Jays holding a record of 26-29 and the Pirates at 26-30.

The Blue Jays are projected to start their right-handed pitcher, Jose Berrios, who has been performing at an average level according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Berrios has started 11 games this year, with a win-loss record of 5-4 and an excellent ERA of 2.94. However, his 4.00 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this year and could regress going forward.

The Pirates will counter with left-handed pitcher Bailey Falter, who has struggled this season. Falter has started 10 games, with a win-loss record of 3-2 and an ERA of 3.55. His 4.82 xFIP indicates that he has also benefited from some luck and may see a decline in his performance.

This game marks the first in a series between these two teams. The Blue Jays offense ranks as the 13th best in MLB this season, while the Pirates offense sits at a lowly 28th. The Blue Jays have been particularly strong in team batting average, ranking 5th in the league. In contrast, the Pirates have struggled in various offensive categories, including team batting average.

Defensively, both teams have solid bullpens with the Blue Jays ranking 13th and the Pirates ranking 9th in our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This could make for an interesting matchup late in the game.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Blue Jays are favored to win this game with a projected win probability of 61%. The Pirates, on the other hand, are projected to have a win probability of 39%. Based on the current odds, the Blue Jays have a high implied team total of 4.71 runs, while the Pirates have an average implied team total of 3.79 runs.

Overall, the Blue Jays have the advantage in this matchup, given their stronger offense and the projected performance of their starting pitcher. However, in baseball, anything can happen, and the Pirates will be looking to defy the odds and pull off an upset.

The Game Total for this matchup is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring in the game. With the Blue Jays being the betting favorite, with a current moneyline of -165, and an implied win probability of 60%, the Pirates are considered the underdog, with a current moneyline of +140 and an implied win probability of 40%.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Bailey Falter's 2001-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 2nd percentile out of all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Edward Olivares is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Jose Berrios has averaged 18.4 outs per GS this year, grading out in the 94th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Ernie Clement's speed has gotten better this year. His 28.36 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.93 ft/sec now.

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

Toronto's 88.6-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is among the worst in the game: #23 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 45 games (+6.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 41 games (+10.05 Units / 22% ROI)
• Edward Olivares has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+8.75 Units / 28% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.98 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.7

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