Pittsburgh Pirates vs Texas Rangers Betting Pick & Preview – 8/20/2024

• Date: August 20, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates
  • Cody Bradford - Rangers

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers prepare to face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 20, 2024, both teams find themselves struggling this season, with records of 58-68 and 58-66, respectively. With the Rangers currently sitting in 4th place in the AL West and the Pirates in 4th place in the NL Central, both squads will be looking for a much-needed win to regain some momentum. The Rangers last played on August 19, where they defeated the Pirates in a close matchup.

On the mound, Texas will turn to Cody Bradford, who enters the game with a perfect 4-0 record this season and a strong ERA of 3.50. Although ranked 94th among MLB starting pitchers, Bradford’s solid performance suggests he may be a key asset against a struggling Pittsburgh offense that ranks 26th in the league. The projections indicate that Bradford is likely to pitch around 5.4 innings and allow approximately 2.2 earned runs, which aligns well against a Pirates lineup that has been underwhelming.

Pittsburgh counters with Mitch Keller, who has a record of 10-7 and a respectable ERA of 3.95. However, Keller has faced challenges this season, ranking as a below-average pitcher. With a projected performance of allowing 3.1 earned runs in 5.6 innings, the Rangers' average offense, which ranks 23rd overall, might find opportunities against him.

Given the Rangers' strong bullpen, ranked 3rd in MLB, and their status as betting favorites at -150, they appear to have the edge in this matchup. With Adolis Garcia performing well recently, including 9 hits and 3 home runs over the last week, Texas will hope to capitalize on the Pirates' weaknesses and secure a victory in this interleague encounter.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Compared to average, Mitch Keller has been given an above-average leash this year, throwing an additional 4.9 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (81% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Michael A. Taylor hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Cody Bradford has a large reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 8 opposite-handed hitters in today's game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Marcus Semien's average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 87.3-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 84.7-mph over the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be smart to expect better numbers for the Texas Rangers offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 3rd-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 59 games at home (+19.45 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 40 games (+11.00 Units / 22% ROI)
• Wyatt Langford has hit the RBIs Under in 26 of his last 32 games (+12.95 Units / 18% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.83 vs Texas Rangers 4.94

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