Pittsburgh Pirates vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction – 3/31/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face the Pittsburgh Pirates on March 31, 2025, they are looking to build on their strong start to the season with a record of 2-1. The Rays have been performing well, especially with their bullpen, which ranks as the 2nd best in MLB. In contrast, the Pirates are struggling at 1-3, with their offense ranked 28th overall. This interleague matchup will take place at George M. Steinbrenner Field, marking the first game in the series between these two teams.

Drew Rasmussen is projected to take the mound for the Rays. While he ranks as the 29th best starting pitcher in MLB, his performance metrics suggest some concerns, including a projected average of 1.8 innings pitched and allowing 1.5 hits and 0.6 earned runs. However, he has the potential to keep the Pirates' struggling offense at bay. On the other side, Carmen Mlodzinski is projected to start for Pittsburgh, and his rankings indicate he is one of the worst pitchers in MLB. His projections also reflect a tough outing, with an estimated 1.6 innings pitched and 0.8 earned runs allowed.

Offensively, the Rays are facing challenges, ranking 29th in MLB in team batting average and 28th in home runs. However, they do excel in stolen bases, ranking 4th overall, which could be a factor against a Pirates team that has a mediocre 17th ranking in that category. The Pirates, while having a slightly better ranking in stolen bases at 17th, also show weaknesses in their lineup, contributing to their low implied team total of 3.47 runs for today's game.

With a game total set at 8.0 runs, the Rays enter this contest as favorites, reflected in their moneyline of -175. Given the current projections and the disparity in pitching quality, Tampa Bay looks well-positioned to secure a victory in this matchup.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Carmen Mlodzinski has been lucky since the start of last season, notching a 3.37 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.56 — a 1.19 gap.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Oneil Cruz's maximum exit velocity (an advanced standard to measure power) has been 121.5 mph since the start of last season, ranking in the 100th percentile.

• If a player can hit the ball hard even once, it has great predictive power over his ability to do it again. If he's never hit the ball hard, it's a sign of a lack of power.

It may be smart to expect positive regression for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball since the start of last season.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Out of all starting pitchers, Drew Rasmussen's fastball spin rate of 2535 rpm is in the 96th percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Danny Jansen is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#3-worst of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen grades out as the 8th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 89 of their last 150 games (+23.81 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 22 away games (+5.60 Units / 24% ROI)
• Oneil Cruz has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 9 away games (+3.25 Units / 33% ROI)

• Date: March 31, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carmen Mlodzinski - Pirates
  • Drew Rasmussen - Rays

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