Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/17/2024

• Date: September 17, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates
  • Lance Lynn - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

As the St. Louis Cardinals host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Busch Stadium on September 17, 2024, both teams are looking to improve their standings in the National League Central. The Cardinals sit at a .500 record of 75-75, while the Pirates are languishing below average at 71-79.

In the pitching matchup, the Cardinals are set to start Lance Lynn, who has a Win/Loss record of 6-4 and an ERA of 3.96 this season. Despite his below-average Power Rankings position at #145 among MLB starters, Lynn's ability to project 5.5 innings and allow just 2.3 earned runs on average today gives the Cardinals a fighting chance. Additionally, he faces a Pirates offense ranked 27th in MLB, struggling with a mere 142 home runs this season, which is the 5th least in the league. This could play to Lynn's advantage as a high-flyball pitcher.

On the other hand, Bailey Falter will take the mound for the Pirates. With a record of 8-7 and an ERA of 4.20, Falter has also been less than stellar, ranking among the worst in MLB. His projections show he may struggle to pitch beyond 4.8 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs, which could further burden a Pirates offense that ranks 24th in home runs.

According to the projections, the Cardinals have a high implied team total of 4.27 runs, suggesting they should capitalize on Falter's vulnerabilities. With the Cardinals' bullpen ranked 11th compared to the Pirates' 20th, St. Louis may have the upper hand as they look to secure a series win.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Bailey Falter's higher usage percentage of his fastball this year (63.1 vs. 52.8% last season) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Rowdy Tellez is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 66% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit 30.6% of their balls in the air 100 mph or faster this year, putting them as the #8 team in MLB by this metric.

• To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Lance Lynn's 2453-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 89th percentile out of all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Michael Siani has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.5-mph dropping to 80.3-mph in the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.25 Units / 53% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 62 of their last 113 games (+8.67 Units / 6% ROI)
• Paul Goldschmidt has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.95 Units / 30% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.18 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.51

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