Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction & Picks 6/13/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Details

• Date: June 13, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates
  • Lance Lynn - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

As the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates prepare for their matchup on June 13, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of a below-average season. The Cardinals hold a 32-34 record, while the Pirates are slightly behind at 32-35. This National League Central showdown at Busch Stadium is the third game in their series, with both teams looking to gain some momentum.

The Cardinals will send right-hander Lance Lynn to the mound. Lynn has been solid this season, posting a 3.58 ERA over 13 starts, though his 4.16 xFIP suggests he might regress. He is projected to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs while striking out 6 batters. Despite his good ERA, his peripherals indicate he’s been somewhat fortunate, and his high projected hits and walks allowed could be a concern.

On the other side, the Pirates will counter with right-hander Mitch Keller. Keller has been impressive with an 8-3 record and a 3.16 ERA. However, his 3.84 xFIP also hints at some luck. He projects to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs and striking out 5.3 batters. Like Lynn, Keller’s projections show he might give up a fair number of hits and walks.

Offensively, both teams have struggled. The Cardinals rank 22nd in MLB in overall offense and home runs, while the Pirates rank 27th and 23rd, respectively. St. Louis’s best hitter recently has been Nolan Arenado, who has hit .400 with a .958 OPS over the last week. For Pittsburgh, Rowdy Tellez has been hot, batting .462 with a 1.346 OPS in his last four games.

Bullpens could play a crucial role in this game. The Cardinals’ bullpen ranks 6th in the Power Rankings, while the Pirates’ bullpen is close behind at 8th. Both teams have strong relief corps, which could be pivotal in a close game.

The betting markets see this as a tight contest, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%. However, given Lynn’s solid ERA and the Cardinals' slightly better offensive ranking, they might have a slight edge. This game promises to be a competitive one as both teams look to turn their seasons around.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Mitch Keller has gone to his secondary pitches 6.2% less often this year (45%) than he did last season (51.2%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Rowdy Tellez's footspeed has improved this season. His 23.36 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.27 ft/sec now.

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Nick Gonzales, Jack Suwinski, Oneil Cruz).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the strongest out of every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.340) may lead us to conclude that Dylan Carlson has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .278 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen projects as the 6th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.50 Units / 64% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 63 games (+10.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• Mitch Keller has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 6 games (+6.25 Units / 87% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.16 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.46

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.