Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction, Odds & Picks – 9/18/2024

• Date: September 18, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jake Woodford - Pirates
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates on September 18, 2024, both teams find themselves in challenging positions in the standings. The Cardinals sit at 76-75, enjoying an average season, while the Pirates languish at 71-80 with a below-average record. In their most recent game on September 17, the Cardinals secured a 3-1 victory over the Pirates, continuing their momentum as they enter this matchup.

Sonny Gray takes the mound for St. Louis, boasting a solid 3.75 ERA and a 13-9 record across 27 starts this season. His advanced-stat Power Rankings position him as the 23rd best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his effectiveness on the hill. Gray's last outing was impressive, where he pitched six innings, allowing just one earned run and striking out nine batters. The Pirates' offense, which ranks 28th in MLB, will have a tough time against Gray, especially considering they have the 4th most strikeouts in the league—an area where Gray excels, with a high strikeout rate of 30.2%.

Opposing Gray is Jake Woodford, who has struggled significantly this season, recording an 0-6 record with a dismal 8.01 ERA. Woodford's last start was a nightmare, yielding seven earned runs in just three innings. His projections suggest he will only pitch around 4.5 innings while allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs, which does not bode well for the Pirates.

The Cardinals' offense ranks 19th overall but has shown some recent spark, particularly with Paul Goldschmidt leading the way. The projections indicate that St. Louis is expected to score around 4.71 runs, while Pittsburgh is projected for only 3.77 runs. With the Cardinals being significant favorites, the betting lines reflect their stronger position as they look to build on their recent success.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Jake Woodford has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 6.4 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

In terms of his home runs, Oneil Cruz has suffered from bad luck this year. His 20.4 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a good deal lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 31.1.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Billy Cook, Joey Bart, Oneil Cruz).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

With 6 batters who share his hand in the opposing team's projected lineup, Sonny Gray figures to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Lars Nootbaar has made significant improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 10.2% seasonal rate to 23.1% over the last 7 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen ranks as the 10th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+7.45 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 62 of their last 114 games (+7.02 Units / 5% ROI)
• Rowdy Tellez has hit the Hits Under in his last 7 games (+8.40 Units / 111% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.81 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.75

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.