Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick – 8/28/2025
The Pittsburgh Pirates will square off against the St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday afternoon at Busch Stadium. The Pirates have won two of the first three games in this series and will look to finish strong against the Cards in this matinee. For a full preview of this game, including my Pirates vs Cardinals prediction, continue reading below.
Our Pirates vs Cardinals Pick
- Pick: Pirates moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals
- Date & Time: Thursday, August 28, 2025, 2:15 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers:
- Pirates – Braxton Ashcraft (4-2, 2.70 ERA)
- Cardinals – Miles Mikolas (6-10, 5.17 ERA)
- Stadium: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
- Broadcast: FDSMW and SportsNet PT
Key Storylines
- Pitching matchup: Pittsburgh’s Braxton Ashcraft has delivered strong results this season with a tidy 2.70 ERA. Miles Mikolas of the Cardinals has struggled with a 5.17 ERA. Mikolas has allowed 23 home runs in 125.1 innings of work. Ashcraft has allowed just one home run over his 46.2 innings during the 2025 season.
- Key Players: Tommy Pham was a key reason for the Pirates’ win on Wednesday. His two-run single was the only scoring play for the Pirates in that matchup and Pittsburgh would love to get offense from other sources today. St. Louis’ Willson Contreras has a suspension looming and will look to bounce back from an 0-4 showing on Wednesday.
- Recent team performance: The Pirates have won six of their last seven games and have won two games in a row. The Cardinals have struggled with only one win in their last five games. St. Louis’ recent struggles have dropped them 7.5 games out of the final National League Wild Card spot.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Miles Mikolas | Under 5.5 Strikeouts |
| Willson Contreras | Under 1.5 Total Bases |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Pirates lead the season series against the Cardinals by a 7-5 margin.
- This is the last game of the regular-season series between these teams. Pittsburgh clinched the season series with their win on Wednesday.
- The Pirates are just 20-45 on the road for the season.
- St. Louis enters this matchup at 36-32.
Pirates vs Cardinals Model Projection
Score Projection: Pirates 5 – Cardinals 4
Win Probability: Pirates 53%, Cardinals 47%
Final Thoughts
The fact that the Pirates are favored in this game despite having such a bad road record tells you everything you need to know about the Cardinals right now. St. Louis is playing some dreadful baseball and we should see Pittsburgh take advantage of that. I will take Pittsburgh to win on the road as an underdog in this series finale from St. Louis.
