Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick – 8/27/2025
The St. Louis Cardinals will host the Pittsburgh Pirates in the third game of a four-game series on Wednesday. These teams have split the first two games of this series. That is a disappointing result for Cardinals fans who are hoping their team can string together some wins to get back into Wild Card contention. Before this game begins from Busch Stadium, keep reading to get my thoughts and to get my Pirates vs Cardinals prediction.
Our Pirates vs Cardinals Pick
- Pick: Over 7.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals
- Date & Time: Wednesday, August 27, 2025, 7:45 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers:
- St. Louis – Sonny Gray (12-6, 4.33 ERA)
- Pittsburgh – Carmen Mlodzinski (3-7, 3.89 ERA)
- Stadium: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
- Broadcast: FOX Sports 1
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
The Cardinals are entrusting Sonny Gray with the start tonight. Gray is 12-6 and has a 4.33 ERA in 2025. Gray is a veteran who has delivered consistent results and whose team is typically able to win games when he starts. Carmen Mlodzinski is 3-7 with a 3.89 ERA for Pittsburgh. He is a less proven arm than Gray and his starts have been more volatile.
Key Players
Bryan Reynolds had multiple doubles in Pittsburgh’s win over the Cardinals on Tuesday. His ability to generate extra-base hits would be huge for the Pirates again in this contest. St. Louis will rely on Alec Burleson to help them create runs by getting on base.
Recent team streaks
The Pirates have won four of their last five games coming into this game. Three of those four wins were against the Colorado Rockies, but I’m not sure the Pirates will be apologizing for those wins anytime soon. The Cardinals have lost three of their last four games.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Alec Burleson (STL) | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Pittsburgh holds a 6-5 lead in their season series against the Cardinals this year.
- The first two games of this series have both had 10+ runs scored between the two teams. The over is 2-0 in those last two contests.
Pirates vs Cardinals Model Projection
Score Projection: Cardinals 5 – Pirates 4
Win Probability: Cardinals 53%, Pirates 47%
Final Thoughts
If I had to pick a side to win this game from Pittsburgh, I would go with the Cardinals. Thankfully, I don’t need to pick a side. Instead, I can focus on the total, where I like the over to cash at 7.5 runs. The Pirates’ pitching staff is not a group I trust and that is still the case going into this game. St. Louis should do damage against Mlodzinski and Gray won’t be immune to a couple of trouble spots on the mound for St. Louis either.
