Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick & Preview – 9/19/2024

• Date: September 19, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Ortiz - Pirates
  • Erick Fedde - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates face off at Busch Stadium on September 19, 2024, in a National League Central matchup. The Cardinals, with a 77-75 record, are having an average season, while the Pirates lag behind at 71-81, experiencing a below-average campaign. This game marks the fourth in their series, with the Cardinals holding a slight edge as betting favorites at -140, translating to an implied win probability of 56%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Cardinals an even stronger edge, projecting a 60% chance of victory.

On the mound, the Cardinals will start Erick Fedde, ranked 93rd among starting pitchers in MLB, indicating an average performance. He boasts a 3.45 ERA, navigating through 29 starts with an 8-9 record. While his ERA suggests strong performance, a 4.23 xFIP hints at some luck playing a role. Fedde is projected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, and striking out 5.4 batters, though he might struggle with hits and walks.

The Pirates counter with Luis Ortiz, who has juggled between the rotation and the bullpen this season. Despite a respectable 3.45 ERA, his 4.76 xFIP suggests luck may turn against him. Ortiz has a 6-6 record across 35 appearances, and he's projected to allow 2.8 earned runs over 5.2 innings, with a modest 3.5 strikeouts.

Offensively, St. Louis ranks 20th overall, buoyed by an average team batting average of 13th, while struggling with power, sitting 23rd in home runs. The Pirates, meanwhile, rank 28th overall with offensive struggles evident in their 23rd rank in batting average and 26th in home runs. With Fedde's high-flyball tendencies facing the Pirates' power-deficient lineup, the advantage leans toward St. Louis. Both bullpens are middle-of-the-pack, ranking 11th and 18th respectively, adding another layer to a game that could hinge on the starters' performances.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Luis L. Ortiz's 94.1-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.2-mph decrease from last year's 95.3-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Billy Cook, Joey Bart, Oneil Cruz).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Erick Fedde has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 3.1 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Michael Siani's average exit velocity has declined lately; his 84.5-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 80.7-mph in the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

St. Louis Cardinals hitters as a group rank 27th- in the majors for power this year when using their 6.9% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 27 games (+7.25 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 39 of their last 69 games (+6.50 Units / 8% ROI)
• Nolan Arenado has hit the RBIs Over in 17 of his last 37 games (+8.85 Units / 24% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.09 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.63

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