Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick & Preview – 9/16/2024

• Date: September 16, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Busch Stadium on September 16, 2024, both teams are looking to gain momentum in an otherwise challenging season. The Cardinals, with a record of 74-75, are having an average year, while the Pirates sit below them at 71-78. Notably, the Cardinals' pitching prospect Andre Pallante is set to take the mound.

Pallante brings a right-handed approach to a matchup against Pittsburgh's Paul Skenes. Pallante's xERA of 4.13 indicates he’s above average in terms of earned runs, even if he’s projected to allow a high number of hits today. He is a high-groundball pitcher with a 61% groundball rate, a favorable matchup against a Pirates lineup that struggles with power and has connected for just 142 home runs this year, ranked as the 5th least in MLB.

While the Cardinals' offense struggles, ranking 20th in the league, they have Brendan Donovan hitting well of late, with a .350 batting average over the past week. Donovan’s performance could provide the spark St. Louis needs against a lowly Pirates offense currently ranked 28th overall. The projections suggest that today's game total is set low at 7.0 runs, with the Cardinals projected for just 3.26 runs.

Despite their subpar season records, the Cardinals boast the 8th best bullpen in MLB, compared to the Pirates who rank 19th. With a playoff spot out of reach for both teams, this matchup is crucial for pride and potential momentum heading into the final stretch of the season.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Paul Skenes's 98.2-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 100th percentile among all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Billy Cook is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of St. Louis (#2-worst of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates bats as a unit grade out 10th- in the game for power this year when judging by their 8.4% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Considering that flyball batters struggle against flyball pitchers, Andre Pallante (59.4% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 2 FB hitters in the opposing team's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

In the past week, Alec Burleson's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.9% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.8% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.85 Units / 56% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 55 games (+7.75 Units / 12% ROI)
• Alec Burleson has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 31 games (+7.50 Units / 15% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.06 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.20

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