Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick & Preview – 6/12/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Details

• Date: June 12, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Busch Stadium on June 12, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of below-average seasons. The Cardinals, with a record of 31-34, and the Pirates, at 32-34, are both struggling in the National League Central. This game marks the second in their series, with the Cardinals looking to capitalize on their home-field advantage.

The pitching matchup heavily favors St. Louis. The Cardinals will start Sonny Gray, who is currently ranked as the 13th best starting pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Gray boasts a solid 7-4 record with an impressive 3.21 ERA over 11 starts. Despite an unlucky season reflected by his 2.64 xFIP, Gray is projected to allow just 1.9 earned runs on average today while striking out 6.1 batters. His high strikeout rate (32.8%) pairs well against a Pirates lineup that ranks 5th in the league for most strikeouts.

On the other side, Pittsburgh will send Bailey Falter to the mound. Falter's 3-3 record and 3.69 ERA seem respectable at first glance, but a 4.68 xFIP indicates he has been fortunate thus far. The projections are not kind to Falter today, expecting him to allow 2.7 earned runs and 5.2 hits over an average of just 4.7 innings.

Offensively, neither team has been particularly strong. The Cardinals rank 22nd in MLB in team offense and 22nd in home runs, while the Pirates are even worse, ranking 27th offensively and 23rd in home runs. However, the Cardinals have a slight edge in recent form; Dylan Carlson has been their standout hitter over the past week, posting a .364 batting average and .962 OPS in five games. For the Pirates, Rowdy Tellez has been their best hitter lately, hitting .462 with a 1.346 OPS over four games.

Both bullpens are strong, with the Cardinals ranked 7th and the Pirates 8th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, given the disparity in starting pitching and the Cardinals' projected 4.49 runs compared to the Pirates' 3.51, St. Louis enters this matchup as a significant favorite with an implied win probability of 61%. Bettors might find value in backing the Cardinals, who should have the upper hand thanks to Sonny Gray's dominant form and the Pirates' offensive struggles.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense projects as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Jack Suwinski has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (53% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Nick Gonzales, Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinski).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Sonny Gray has a mean strikeout projection of 6.1 hitters today, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen grades out as the 7th-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.50 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 30 games (+9.25 Units / 25% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 away games (+10.85 Units / 32% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.6 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.72

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