Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners Prediction – 7/6/2025

The Seattle Mariners and Pittsburgh Pirates wrap up their three-game series at T‑Mobile Park on Sunday, July 6. Seattle’s offense will face Pittsburgh’s ace Paul Skenes, in a matchup that pits the league’s home run leader against one of its best pitchers. Here, I break down that matchup and more as I make my Pirates vs Mariners prediction for Sunday.

Our Pirates vs Mariners Pick

• Pick: Mariners moneyline
• Confidence: ★★★★☆
• Bonus Bets For the Game: Use our DraftKings Sportsbook bonus code to bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY for this game!

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets Instantly

⚾ MLB Parlay Profit Boosts & More

Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+

⚾ MLB Parlay Profit Boosts & More

Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+

Click To Claim

Claim Bonus
Promo Code: Click To Claim

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets Instantly

⚾ MLB Parlay Profit Boosts & More

Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+

Click To Claim

Claim Bonus
Promo Code: Click To Claim

Claim Bonus
Promo Code: Click To Claim

Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners
• Date & Time: Sunday, July 6, 2025, 4:10 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Paul Skenes (PIT) vs. George Kirby (SEA)
• Stadium: T‑Mobile Park, Seattle WA
• Broadcast: ROOT Sports NW, SportsNet PT

Key Storylines

Pitching Form

• George Kirby has had a rocky start to 2025 with a 2-4 record and 4.85 ERA. But here he takes on a Pirates team that has struggled to score runs, which could help him turn his season around.
• Paul Skenes carries a sterling 2.03 ERA but a lackluster 4-7 record. The lack of run support that the Pirates have given him has been well-documented and needs to change for him and Pittsburgh to have a better second half of the season.

Bullpen Usage

Seattle’s bullpen has helped the Mariners shut out the Pirates in two straight games in this series. Both teams have solid bullpen ERAs, but it’s been the Mariners that have had the upper hand in relief pitching so far in this series.

Recent Team Streaks

• The Mariners have won two straight games and three of their last four.
• The Pirates have lost two straight games but have still won three of their last five.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• Seattle is 2-0 against the Pirates so far this season.
• Pittsburgh has won four of the last five games that Skenes has started.
• The Pirates have not scored five runs in a game Skenes has started since May 28.

Pirates vs Mariners Model Projection

Score Projection: SEA 5 – PIT 4

Win Probability: SEA 54%, PIT 46%

Final Thoughts

Paul Skenes is always dangerous on the mound for Pittsburgh. But his offense hasn’t helped him out all that much over the last month or so. I expect Cal Raleigh to get the better of Skenes at some point in this game and for the Mariners to get the win in this contest. I also don’t mind the idea of betting the under on the Pirates’ team total after they were shut out in each of their last two games.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.