Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants Pick – 7/28/2025
The Pittsburgh Pirates will face the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park in San Francisco on Monday night. The Giants struggled over the weekend against an elite opponent in the New York Mets. They will look to bounce back against a Pirates team that has had significantly less success in 2025. Here, I break down this matchup between National League teams and make my Pirates vs Giants prediction.
Our Pirates vs Giants Pick
- Pick: Pirates +105
- Confidence: 3 stars
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants
- Date & Time: Monday, July 28, 2025, 9:45 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Mitch Keller (PIT) vs Carson Whisenhunt (SF)
- Stadium: Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA
- Broadcast: MLB Network
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
The Pirates will send right-hander Mitch Keller to the mound. Keller has been a steady presence for Pittsburgh despite his 4–10 record. He has a 3.53 ERA and 97 strikeouts over 125 innings this season. He has delivered quality starts in each of his last four outings. He has posted a 2.10 ERA in July.
The Giants will go with Carson Whisenhunt as their starting pitcher in this game. Whisenhunt is making his season debut and will look to make a good first impression in a tough spot for the Giants.
Key Players
- Andrew McCutchen (PIT): The veteran outfielder continues to be a key contributor for the Pirates. He leads Pittsburgh with a .248 batting average.
- Patrick Bailey (SF): The Giants’ catcher has a career .834 OPS against the Pirates. He has 12 RBIs in 12 games against Pittsburgh.
Recent Team Streaks
- The Pirates have won two games in a row and four of their last five.
- The Giants lost three straight games to the New York Mets over the weekend.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Patrick Bailey | Over 0.5 RBIs |
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the first of six games between the Pirates and Giants set to take place this season.
- The Giants have scored five total runs during their recent three-game losing streak.
- Pittsburgh has recorded shutouts of the Diamondbacks in two straight games.
Pirates vs Giants Model Projection
- Score Projection: Pirates 5 – Giants 4
- Win Probability: Pirates 55%, Giants 45%
Final Thoughts
The Giants have the home-field advantage and a stronger overall record. But the Pirates have been playing better baseball recently. Mitch Keller’s consistent performances provide a solid foundation for them in this contest. The uncertainty surrounding Whisenhunt on the mound should also give the Pirates a boost in this game. I’ll take the Pirates as an underdog to get the win in this one.
