Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/12/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Details

• Date: August 12, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Marco Gonzales - Pirates
  • Joe Musgrove - Padres

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Petco Park on August 12, 2024, both teams are looking to gain momentum in a crucial matchup. Currently, the Padres hold a solid 66-53 record, while the Pirates are struggling at 56-61. In their last game, the Padres faced a setback with a tough loss to the Miami Marlins, a rare blip in an otherwise strong season.

San Diego's Joe Musgrove is projected to start, despite a mediocre 3-4 record and an alarming 5.66 ERA this year. However, with a 4.32 xFIP, there's reason to believe he could be due for better performance—a good sign against a team that ranks 26th in the league in batting average. The Padres offense has been potent, ranking 1st in MLB for team batting average and 9th overall, which gives them a significant advantage against Pittsburgh's struggling unit.

On the mound for the Pirates will be Marco Gonzales. The lefty has an average ERA of 4.54 but is projected to struggle today, especially against San Diego's low-strikeout offense. Gonzales’s high xERA of 6.74 suggests he may have benefitted from some good luck this year, and facing a confident Padres lineup could expose that vulnerability.

The projections favor the Padres significantly, who are expected to score around 4.81 runs while the Pirates are projected for only 3.87. With their strong offensive capabilities and a bullpen ranked 4th best in MLB, the Padres are positioned as the betting favorite with a high implied team total of 4.40 runs. Expect San Diego to leverage their home advantage in a quest to rebound from their last defeat.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Marco Gonzales's cutter rate has spiked by 15% from last year to this one (8.8% to 23.8%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Bryan De La Cruz has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (94% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 8.6% Barrel% of the Pittsburgh Pirates makes them the #9 group of hitters in Major League Baseball this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Joe Musgrove's 2621-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 99th percentile out of all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Kyle Higashioka's average exit velocity has declined of late; his 88.1-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 81.6-mph in the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 53 games (+12.50 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 36 of their last 62 games (+10.60 Units / 14% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+11.30 Units / 13% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.93 vs San Diego Padres 5.04

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.