Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 6/1/2025

On June 1, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Petco Park in what marks the third game of their series. The Padres are enjoying a solid season with a record of 32-24, while the Pirates are struggling at 22-37. Despite their current positions, the Pirates did manage to pull off a surprising win against the Padres in their previous matchup, adding some intrigue to this contest.

Projected starters Randy Vasquez and Andrew Heaney offer a compelling matchup for bettors. Vasquez, a right-handed pitcher, has been somewhat underwhelming this season, ranking as the 282nd best pitcher in MLB, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. While he has a respectable ERA of 3.58, his 5.50 xFIP suggests he may have been lucky so far. He has a low strikeout rate of just 13.4% and is projected to allow an average of 2.7 earned runs over 5.1 innings pitched.

On the other hand, Heaney, a left-hander, has a slightly better season with a 3.41 ERA. Despite this, he also ranks among the weaker pitchers in MLB, with a low strikeout percentage of 17.3% as well. Heaney's projections indicate he may allow about 3.1 earned runs over 5.2 innings.

Offensively, the Padres rank 14th overall, with a solid 9th in batting average but struggle with power, ranking 22nd in home runs. Meanwhile, the Pirates' offense is ranked 27th overall, showing very poor production. Their strength lies in speed, as they rank 4th in stolen bases this season.

With a strong bullpen—ranked 2nd in MLB—the Padres have the upper hand in this matchup. Betting odds favor the Padres as they look to bounce back from their recent loss to the Pirates. Given the statistics and current form, this game could lean heavily in favor of San Diego, especially given their elite bullpen and Pittsburgh's offensive struggles.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Andrew Heaney's four-seam fastball percentage has fallen by 5.2% from last year to this one (49.9% to 44.7%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Ke'Bryan Hayes is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen projects as the 4th-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Randy Vasquez was on point in his last GS and gave up 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 87.9-mph EV last year has dropped off to 84.6-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Jackson Merrill hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 44 games (+6.90 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 29 away games (+10.05 Units / 30% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.05 Units / 61% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.57, San Diego Padres 5.13

• Date: June 1, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Heaney - Pirates
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres

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