Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 5/31/2025

On May 31, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Petco Park for the second game of their series. The Padres are currently 32-23 and enjoying a solid season, while the Pirates sit at 21-37 and are struggling to find their footing. The Padres have established themselves as a strong contender, boasting the 2nd best bullpen in MLB, which is expected to play a crucial role in their success.

Dylan Cease is slated to start for San Diego on Saturday. Cease, ranked as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, has shown flashes of brilliance despite a 1-3 record and a 4.58 ERA this season. His projected strikeouts of 7.0 per game suggest he could be in for a favorable outing against a Pirates lineup that ranks 27th in MLB offensively.

Facing Cease will be Bailey Falter, a left-hander with a 3.47 ERA, who has benefitted from some luck this season. His projections indicate he may struggle against the Padres, who rank 9th in MLB in batting average and have a low strikeout rate, making them well-suited to capitalize on the low-strikeout approach of Falter.

Given the Padres’ strong pitching and the Pirates' weak offensive showing, San Diego is favored heavily with a moneyline of -215, indicating a high implied team total of 4.42 runs. While the Game Total is set low at 7.5 runs, expect the Padres to leverage their home advantage and bounce back after their surprising defeat.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Extreme groundball hitters like Tommy Pham usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Dylan Cease.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Dylan Cease is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.6% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #10 HR venue in MLB in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

In the past 14 days, Manny Machado's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.3% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.05 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 27 away games (+10.05 Units / 32% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+9.20 Units / 131% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.67, San Diego Padres 4.71

• Date: May 31, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates
  • Dylan Cease - Padres

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