Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Pick – 5/30/2025

As the San Diego Padres prepare to face the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 30, 2025, at Petco Park, the stakes are high for both teams, albeit for different reasons. The Padres, sitting at 31-23, are enjoying a solid season and are expected to leverage their home-field advantage against a struggling Pirates squad, which has a lackluster record of 21-36.

Nick Pivetta, projected to start for San Diego, has been a reliable arm this season, boasting a 5-2 record and an impressive ERA of 2.72. Despite being ranked as the 61st best starting pitcher in MLB, Pivetta's advanced metrics suggest he may have benefited from some good fortune, potentially setting the stage for a challenging outing if regression occurs.

On the flip side, Pirates' Mitch Keller has had a rougher time, currently holding a 1-6 record. His ERA stands at 3.66, which is decent, but his 3.15 FIP indicates he could be due for a turnaround. However, Keller's low strikeout rate and high hits allowed projection could be problematic against a Padres lineup that, while averaging out as the 14th best in MLB, has fighters who can capitalize on mistakes.

Additionally, the projection for the game total is set low at 7.5 runs, indicating expectations for a pitchers' duel. The Padres, ranked 3rd in bullpen efficiency, are likely to outlast Pittsburgh's struggling 27th-ranked bullpen. With San Diego projected to score 4.32 runs, they appear to have the upper hand, particularly given their advantageous hitting match against Keller, who is facing a potent lineup that has the potential to exploit his weaknesses. This matchup may very well tilt in favor of the Padres, especially considering their recent performance and overall season trajectory.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Mitch Keller is an extreme flyball pitcher (31.3% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #10 HR venue among all stadiums in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Oneil Cruz's average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 96.3-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 77.2-mph over the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Nick Pivetta's slider rate has dropped by 9% from last year to this one (29.2% to 20.2%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Pittsburgh's #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Tyler Wade, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games at home (+9.40 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games (+9.05 Units / 17% ROI)
• Spencer Horwitz has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+7.45 Units / 19% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.83, San Diego Padres 4.74

• Date: May 30, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates
  • Nick Pivetta - Padres

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