Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction – 5/18/2025

The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 18, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup between two teams headed in starkly different directions. The Phillies, currently 27-18 this season, are riding high with solid performances recently, while the Pirates, at 15-31, are struggling to find their footing. In their last encounter, the Phillies claimed a 5-2 victory, showcasing their offensive might and further emphasizing their strong position in the standings.

On the mound for the Phillies, Mick Abel is projected to start, though he has struggled this season, ranked 262nd among starting pitchers in MLB. Abel's projected performance indicates he may pitch around 4.8 innings, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs and striking out only 4.1 batters, which is below-average. Meanwhile, Paul Skenes of the Pirates will counter. Skenes, an elite talent ranked 2nd in MLB, has a solid 2.63 ERA this year, and although his 3.28 xFIP suggests he may not maintain this level of success indefinitely, he's still expected to pitch longer and more effectively than Abel.

Offensively, the Phillies rank 9th in MLB, bolstered by a solid batting average that places them 6th overall. Conversely, the Pirates' offense languishes at 28th, struggling to produce runs consistently. Despite the Pirates' impressive speed on the bases, they rank 29th in home runs and batting average, leading to significant challenges in scoring.

Today’s game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating expectations for a close contest, but with the Phillies’ edge in both pitching and offense, they appear to have the upper hand heading into this series finale.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Paul Skenes's fastball velocity has dropped 1.5 mph this year (97.4 mph) below where it was last season (98.9 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Nick Solak has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (100% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

It may be smart to expect stronger performance for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the unluckiest offense in MLB this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Because flyball pitchers have a sizeable advantage over flyball batters, Mick Abel and his 42.5% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good position today going up against 2 opposing FB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

J.T. Realmuto has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98.4-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 91.3-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Philadelphia Phillies batters collectively rank among the elite in baseball this year (4th-) as it relates to their 90.2-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 games at home (+7.20 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 away games (+8.45 Units / 36% ROI)
• Ke'Bryan Hayes has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.45 Units / 44% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.84, Philadelphia Phillies 4.3

• Date: May 18, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates
  • Mick Abel - Phillies

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.