Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction – 5/17/2025

The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 17, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at Citizens Bank Park. Coming off a strong performance, the Phillies are riding high with a record of 26-18 this season, while the Pirates are struggling significantly at 15-30. The Phillies have shown signs of life recently, and they will look to build on their success as they continue to push for a winning streak.

In this clash, the Phillies are projected to start Zack Wheeler, who has established himself as an elite pitcher this season, currently ranked as the 3rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Wheeler boasts a solid 4-1 record and an impressive 2.95 ERA, indicating his ability to keep runs to a minimum. His projection of allowing 2.2 earned runs over an average of 6.1 innings pitched today is a testament to his effectiveness on the mound.

Conversely, the Pirates will counter with Carmen Mlodzinski, who has struggled throughout the season with a 1-3 record and a disappointing ERA of 5.20. Mlodzinski's projections suggest he could allow around 3.0 earned runs in just 4.2 innings, leaving the Pirates' beleaguered offense with a heavy burden to bear.

The Phillies' offense ranks 10th overall in MLB and 7th in batting average, showcasing their capability to produce runs. In contrast, the Pirates sit at 28th in offense and 29th in home runs. This disparity should favor the Phillies, who are projected to score a generous 5.28 runs today, compared to the Pirates' lowly 3.22 runs.

With the odds heavily favoring the Phillies, a solid performance from Wheeler and an offense ready to capitalize on Mlodzinski's struggles could set the stage for a decisive victory.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Compared to average, Carmen Mlodzinski has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an -11.8 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Extreme flyball hitters like Isiah Kiner-Falefa are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Zack Wheeler.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Alexander Canario, Joey Bart).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Zack Wheeler's higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this year (45.5% compared to 39.6% last year) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Bryson Stott has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 5.1% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• Carmen Mlodzinski has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 4 of his last 6 games (+2.60 Units / 43% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.09, Philadelphia Phillies 5.8

• Date: May 17, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carmen Mlodzinski - Pirates
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies

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