Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction – 5/16/2025

On May 16, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will welcome the Pittsburgh Pirates to Citizens Bank Park for the first game of their series. The Phillies currently hold a solid record of 25-18, positioning them well amid a competitive season, while the Pirates find themselves struggling at 15-29, facing difficulties across both pitching and offense.

Ranger Suarez is projected to take the mound for the Phillies, boasting a Power Rankings position of #26 among approximately 350 pitchers, which suggests he has been unlucky this season despite a concerning ERA of 5.91. His advanced metrics indicate that he could perform better going forward, especially with the Pirates’ lack of power—ranking 29th in home runs—playing right into Suarez's strengths as a high-groundball pitcher.

On the other hand, Andrew Heaney is set to start for the Pirates, but his 3.15 ERA belies a less favorable performance, as indicated by his xFIP of 4.18. Heaney's projection to allow 3.2 earned runs today paints a less-than-encouraging picture, especially against a Phillies offense that ranks 11th overall and 7th in batting average this season.

Betting odds heavily favor the Phillies, who come in at a moneyline of -220. Given their current form, the Phillies’ implied team total of 5.02 runs reflects confidence in their ability to capitalize on the Pirates' struggling pitching and lineup. This matchup will be crucial for both teams, but expectations clearly lean towards the Phillies taking the opener decisively.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Andrew Heaney has utilized his four-seam fastball 6.7% less often this year (43.2%) than he did last year (49.9%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Matt Gorski is penciled in 5th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Out of every team playing today, the worst infield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Kyle Schwarber has been hot in recent games, cracking 6 homers over the past two weeks.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

Bryce Harper has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.70 Units / 49% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 43 games (+8.60 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jared Triolo has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.05 Units / 35% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.93, Philadelphia Phillies 5.36

• Date: May 16, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Heaney - Pirates
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.