Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Prediction & Picks 9/28/2024

• Date: September 28, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates
  • Luis Gil - Yankees

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees, sitting at a strong 93-67 record, are set to host the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have struggled to a 75-85 mark, in the second game of their series on September 28, 2024, at Yankee Stadium. With New York having secured a playoff spot, this matchup remains crucial for maintaining their momentum heading into the postseason. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is aiming to end their season on a high note despite their below-average performance.

In the opener of this series, the Pirates got a win despite the power of the Yankees offense. Aaron Judge has been on fire over the last week, boasting an impressive .533 batting average and belting five home runs. This power surge is a testament to the Yankees' offensive strength, which ranks 3rd in MLB, and they're leading the league in home runs.

The pitching matchup features Luis Gil for the Yankees and Paul Skenes for the Pirates. Gil, an above-average pitcher ranked 82nd, has been a reliable presence with a 15-6 record and a solid 3.27 ERA. However, his xFIP suggests he may have been riding some luck this season. Gil's high-strikeout ability could be pivotal against the Pirates, who rank 4th in most strikeouts.

On the flip side, the Pirates will send out their ace, Paul Skenes, who tops MLB's pitcher rankings and boasts an elite 1.99 ERA. Skenes's groundball tendencies could neutralize the Yankees' power, as he aims to control a lineup that leads MLB in walks.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees this as a tight contest, giving the Yankees a 54% win probability. With their potent offense and a solid pitching performance from Gil, New York is favored to continue their winning ways against a Pirates team that has struggled at the plate, ranking 28th in overall offensive power.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

With a 0.79 deviation between Paul Skenes's 1.99 ERA and his 2.78 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in baseball this year and should see negative regression the rest of the season.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa's average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 88.8-mph figure last season has dropped off to 86.1-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Liover Peguero, Jared Triolo, Oneil Cruz).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Over his last 3 starts, Luis Gil has experienced a substantial fall off in his fastball spin rate: from 2439 rpm over the whole season to 2352 rpm recently.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Pittsburgh's 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Austin Wells, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The 10.7% Barrel% of the New York Yankees ranks them as the #1 club in the league this year by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 64 of their last 111 games (+16.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 away games (+8.20 Units / 36% ROI)
• Gleyber Torres has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 31 games (+9.80 Units / 25% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.73 vs New York Yankees 3.91

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