Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 4/15/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Overview

• Date: April 15, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Martin Perez - Pirates
  • Adrian Houser - Mets
• Run Line: Pirates 1.5 -195, Mets -1.5 165
• Money Line: Pirates 110, Mets -130
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 100

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Pittsburgh Pirates - 46%
• New York Mets - 54%

Projected Win %:

• Pittsburgh Pirates - 45.02%
• New York Mets - 54.98%

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Game Preview & Prediction

The New York Mets are set to face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates in a National League matchup at Citi Field on April 15, 2024. The Mets, with a record of 7-8 this season, are having a below-average season, while the Pirates boast a strong 11-5 record, indicating a great season for them.

The Mets will have Adrian Houser, a right-handed pitcher, as their projected starter. Houser has started two games this year and holds a win/loss record of 0-1 with an ERA of 5.40. However, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Houser is ranked as the #186 best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting that he is one of the worst pitchers in the league. His 6.14 xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) is higher than his ERA, indicating that he may have been lucky so far and could perform worse going forward.

On the other side, the Pirates will start Martin Perez, a left-handed pitcher. Perez has started three games this season, with a win/loss record of 1-0 and an impressive ERA of 1.89. However, his 3.68 xFIP is higher than his ERA, suggesting that he may have been lucky as well and could see a decline in performance.

The Mets offense ranks as the 15th best in MLB this season, while the Pirates offense ranks 13th. However, the Mets offense has struggled in terms of team batting average, ranking 24th in the league. The Pirates, on the other hand, have struggled with team batting average, ranking 26th. Both teams have an average ranking in terms of team home runs and stolen bases.

Considering the projections and rankings, the Pirates seem to have the advantage in this matchup. However, baseball games can be unpredictable, and the Mets will be looking to turn their season around. It should be an intriguing game to watch.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Martin Perez will record an average of 3.5 strikeouts in today's outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Oneil Cruz has big-time HR ability (94th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (30.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Adrian Houser struggles to strike batters out (12th percentile K%) — great news for Cruz.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Rowdy Tellez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.7% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Adrian Houser has utilized his non-fastballs 8.5% more often this season (37.7%) than he did last season (29.2%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

This season, there has been a decline in Starling Marte's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 27.13 ft/sec last year to 24.91 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Rating 3rd-steepest in Major League Baseball since the start of last season, New York Mets batters as a unit have notched a 13.9° launch angle on their hardest-contacted balls (a reliable standard to evaluate power ability).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Pirates vs Mets Prediction: Pirates 4.3 - Mets 4.54

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