Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Prediction, Odds, Picks – 4/17/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Overview

• Date: April 17, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates
  • Luis Severino - Mets
• Run Line: Pirates 1.5 -175, Mets -1.5 150
• Money Line: Pirates 120, Mets -140
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -105

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Pittsburgh Pirates - 44%
• New York Mets - 56%

Projected Win %:

• Pittsburgh Pirates - 43.54%
• New York Mets - 56.46%

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated National League matchup, the New York Mets will take on the Pittsburgh Pirates at Citi Field on April 17, 2024. The Mets, with a record of 9-8, are having an above-average season, while the Pirates, with a record of 11-7, are enjoying a great season.

The Mets will be the home team, looking to capitalize on their home-field advantage. They will send right-handed pitcher Luis Severino to the mound. Severino has started three games this year, with a win-loss record of 1-1. He boasts an excellent ERA of 3.00, but his 3.52 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances. Severino is projected to pitch an average of 5.3 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, striking out 5.5 batters, but also giving up 4.6 hits and 2.1 walks on average.

On the other side, the Pirates will be the away team, aiming to continue their successful season. They will rely on left-handed pitcher Bailey Falter, who has started three games this year and holds a 1-0 record. Falter has an ERA of 4.20, but his 5.45 xFIP suggests that he may have been fortunate and could see a decline in performance going forward. Falter is projected to pitch an average of 4.7 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, striking out 3.0 batters, while surrendering 4.9 hits and 1.4 walks on average.

In terms of offense, the Mets rank 12th in MLB, displaying average underlying talent. However, their team batting average ranks 24th, indicating room for improvement. They have shown power, ranking 11th in team home runs, and average speed, ranking 15th in stolen bases. The Pirates' offense has been impressive, ranking 10th in MLB, with their team batting average being the only weak spot at 26th. They rank 23rd in team home runs and 12th in stolen bases.

In terms of betting odds, the Mets are the favorites with a moneyline of -140, implying a 56% chance of winning. The Pirates are the underdogs with a moneyline of +120, giving them a 44% chance of victory. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring.

With the Mets having the advantage in starting pitching and home-field advantage, they are poised to have the edge in this matchup. However, the Pirates' strong season and their potent offense could make this an exciting and closely contested game.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Because of his reverse platoon split, Bailey Falter should be in good shape facing 6 hitters in the projected offense of the opposite hand in this game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Rowdy Tellez hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.7% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

The New York Mets infield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Francisco Lindor will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against Bailey Falter in today's matchup.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 64 games at home (+14.95 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 60 of their last 104 games (+13.80 Units / 12% ROI)
• Luis Severino has hit the Strikeouts Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.50 Units / 42% ROI)

Pirates vs Mets Prediction: Pirates 4.13 - Mets 4.5

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