Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Prediction – 5/14/2025

On May 14, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Citi Field for the third game of their series. The Mets are currently enjoying a strong season with a record of 28-15, while the Pirates are struggling at 14-29. In their previous matchup, the Mets came out on top, continuing their trend of excellent play.

The Mets will send Clay Holmes to the mound, who has been exceptional this season with a 5-1 record and a stellar ERA of 2.74. Ranking as the 24th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, Holmes has shown he can dominate on the mound. His projection for today suggests he will pitch around 5.7 innings, allowing 1.7 earned runs and striking out 5.7 batters. Notably, his groundball rate of 53% aligns well against a Pirates lineup that has struggled to generate power, ranking 2nd lowest in MLB with just 29 home runs.

On the other side, the Pirates will counter with Bailey Falter, who holds a 2-3 record and an average ERA of 4.36. However, his low strikeout rate of 17.9% could be a disadvantage against a Mets offense that ranks as the 4th best in MLB. The projections indicate Falter will pitch approximately 5.3 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs and striking out only 3.7 batters, which may not suffice against a potent Mets lineup.

With the Mets’ offense performing strongly and the Pirates struggling, the odds favor New York significantly. The Mets are a massive betting favorite with a moneyline of -260, reflecting their dominance in this matchup. While the Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, the expectation is that the Mets will capitalize on their offensive prowess and Holmes’ strong pitching to secure another victory.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Bailey Falter has utilized his sinker 5% more often this season (19.2%) than he did last year (14.2%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Typically, hitters like Isiah Kiner-Falefa who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Clay Holmes.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Henry Davis pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.7% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 5th-worst infield defense is that of the the New York Mets.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Juan Soto has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 13.8% seasonal rate to 35.1% over the last 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The New York Mets have been the 6th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in the future

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games at home (+7.80 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games (+8.40 Units / 25% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.2, New York Mets 4.73

• Date: May 14, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates
  • Clay Holmes - Mets

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