Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Pick – 5/12/2025

On May 12, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Citi Field for the first game in this series. The Mets are currently enjoying a strong season, with a record of 26-15, while the Pirates are struggling at 14-27. This matchup features a notable disparity in pitching, as the Mets are projected to start David Peterson, ranked 119th among MLB pitchers, against the elite Paul Skenes, who ranks 2nd overall.

David Peterson has shown some solid performance this season, with a 3.52 ERA; however, his 4.45 xERA suggests he might be due for a downturn. He projects to pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing approximately 2.3 earned runs and striking out about 6 batters. While Peterson is a high-groundball pitcher with a 58% groundball rate, he faces a Pirates offense that has hit only 28 home runs this season, ranking them 2nd worst in the league.

On the other hand, Paul Skenes has been impressive with a 2.77 ERA and a solid projection of allowing just 2.0 earned runs and striking out 6.7 batters over 5.8 innings. His 3.33 SIERA indicates he may also be benefitting from some luck, but he has the ability to keep the Mets' lineup in check.

Offensively, the Mets rank 5th in the league, boasting a strong batting average and home run count, while the Pirates find themselves at 28th overall in offense, struggling to put runs on the board. Despite the Pirates having a decent ranking in stolen bases at 8th, their lack of power could hinder their chances against Peterson’s groundball tendencies.

With the Mets favored at a moneyline of -140 and a Game Total set low at 7.5 runs, this game presents an opportunity for bettors to capitalize on New York's favorable matchup against Pittsburgh's underwhelming offense.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Because groundball pitchers hold a significant edge over groundball bats, Paul Skenes and his 48.1% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong spot in this matchup facing 2 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Matt Gorski is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Andrew McCutchen hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

With 9 hitters of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected batting order, David Peterson will be at a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Juan Soto has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 97.5-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 93.9-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The best projected offense on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the New York Mets.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.65 Units / 39% ROI)
• Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 45% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.76, New York Mets 3.48

• Date: May 12, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates
  • David Peterson - Mets

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