Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota Twins Prediction – 7/11/2025

The Pittsburgh Pirates travel to Minnesota Friday evening to open a three-game series against the Twins. The Pirates will send Paul Skenes to the mound against Minnesota’s ace Joe Ryan. Skenes has been dominant this season but has not had help from the team around him. Will that change tonight? Continue reading for our Pirates vs Twins prediction to find out.

Our Pirates vs Twins Pick

  • Pick: Under 6.5 total runs
  • Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

  • Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota Twins
  • Date & Time: Friday, July 11, 2025, 8:10 PM ET
  • Starting Pitchers: Pirates: Paul Skenes, Twins: Joe Ryan
  • Stadium: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
  • Broadcast: MNNT • SportsNet PT

Key Storylines

  1. Both starters rank in the top tier of the league in ERA and strikeouts. That sets the stage for a low-scoring game.
  2. The question going into this game is whether or not the Pirates can score some runs for Paul Skenes. Skenes has an ERA under 2.00 but is just 4-7 on the year due to a lack of run support.
  3. Byron Buxton, Minnesota’s leading power bat with 20 home runs, exited Wednesday’s game with a bruised hand and is day‑to‑day.

Recent Team Streaks

  • Pirates: The Pirates have lost six straight going into this contest.
  • Twins: Minnesota has won two of their last three games but lost their series finale against the Chicago Cubs on Thursday.

Best Player Props

PlayerProp
Byron Buxton1+ Home run
Paul SkenesStrikeouts: Over 7.5

Pirates vs Twins Model Projection

Score Projection: Twins 3 – Pirates 2

Win Probability: Twins 57%, Pirates 43%

Final Thoughts

My expectation for this game is the same as other previous games involving the Pirates. Paul Skenes will be great and it won’t be enough to overcome the rest of his team. Look for the Pirates to lose another low-scoring game despite a great outing from their ace pitcher. We’ll take the under in a game where both teams should struggle against elite starting pitching.


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Home MLB Picks Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota Twins Prediction – 7/11/2025