Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction – 6/23/2025

In a National League Central clash on June 23, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at American Family Field. The Brewers are currently enjoying a solid season with a record of 43-35, while the Pirates are struggling significantly at 31-48. Yesterday, the Brewers edged out the Minnesota Twins in a thrilling game, winning 9-8, while the Pirates got the better of the Texas Rangers.

On the mound, Milwaukee is projected to start Chad Patrick, who has had a mixed season. Although he boasts a commendable ERA of 3.50, his xFIP of 4.20 suggests he may have been fortunate, and he has a Win/Loss record of 3-7 after 15 starts. Patrick’s last outing on June 17 was relatively uneventful, as he allowed 4 earned runs over 5 innings. However, he faces a Pirates lineup that ranks 30th in home runs this season, which could work in his favor.

Opposing him will be Braxton Ashcraft, who has shown flashes of brilliance with an impressive ERA of 1.54 but has a concerning xFIP of 4.40. Ashcraft projects to pitch just 4.4 innings, which isn’t ideal, and his 3.5 strikeouts per game projection is below average.

Despite being the favorite with a moneyline of -200 and an implied team total of 4.93 runs, the Brewers’ offense ranks just 20th in MLB. Still, their high stolen base rate (2nd) could pose problems for Ashcraft, who may struggle to keep runners from advancing. The projections indicate that the Brewers can capitalize on the Pirates' weaknesses, especially given their power deficiency. With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, bettors should keep an eye on how these pitching matchups unfold.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense grades out as the 2nd-best among all the teams in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Joey Bart is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

It may be wise to expect improved performance for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Chad Patrick (39.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 2 GB hitters in Pittsburgh's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Christian Yelich has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The 6.2% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers ranks them as the #30 offense in baseball this year by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 68 games (+12.70 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 66 games (+16.30 Units / 21% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+13.80 Units / 30% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.57, Milwaukee Brewers 4.55

• Date: June 23, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Braxton Ashcraft - Pirates
  • Chad Patrick - Brewers

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.