Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Pick – 8/11/2025
The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Milwaukee Brewers will do battle in an NL Central matchup on Monday night at American Family Field. The Brewers are the hottest team in baseball coming into this series and will look to extend their lead at the top of the standings with a win over the last-place Pirates. I have broken down this game from all angles and you can get my Pirates vs Brewers prediction below.
Our Pirates vs Brewers Pick
- Pick: Milwaukee Brewers –1.5
- Confidence: 4/5
- Bet $1, Double Your Winnings: Use Caesars Sportsbook promo code ATSBONUSDYW to bet $1 on this game and double your winnings on your next 10 bets! Click the Claim Bonus button to start.
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers
- Date & Time: Monday, August 11, 2025, 7:40 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers:
- Pirates: Andrew Heaney (5-9, 4.77 ERA)
- Brewers: Jose Quintana (9-4, 3.57 ERA)
- Stadium: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
- Broadcast: MLB Network
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Andrew Heaney has struggled on the road this season. He has a 6.55 ERA and is allowing 2.3 home runs per nine innings away from home. Heaney will need to be on point to avoid putting his team in a bad spot against Brewers starter Jose Quintana. Quintana is 9-4 on the year and is allowing under a hit per inning in 2025.
Key Players
- Milwaukee: Christian Yelich leads the Brewers in home runs (21) and RBI (74). He has been a driving force behind the Brewers’ recent success.
- Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh has struggled at the plate as a team throughout this season. But Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds, and Andrew McCutchen anchor their lineup.
Recent team streaks
The Brewers enter this game riding a nine-game winning streak. They most recently swept the New York Mets at home over the weekend. The Pirates have lost two games in a row entering this contest and split a four-game series against the Cincinnati Reds before heading to Milwaukee.
Best Player Props
| Player | Stat Type | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich | Home runs | Over 0.5 |
| Jose Quintana | Strikeouts | Under 4.5 |
| Oneil Cruz | Total bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Brewers lead the regular season series against the Pirates 4-3 heading into this series opener.
- The Brewers have covered the runline in two straight wins over the Pirates.
- Milwaukee is 39-20 at home this season.
- Pittsburgh is 17-39 on the road in 2025.
Pirates vs Brewers Model Projection
Score Projection: Brewers 5 – Pirates 2
Win Probability: Brewers 68%, Pirates 32%
Final Thoughts
The Pirates’ offense has not been able to hold a candle to that of the Brewers throughout the 2025 season. I expect that trend to continue when the two teams face each other on Monday night. Milwaukee has the advantage in just about every facet of the game heading into this contest. I’ll lay the runline with the Brewers, as I expect them to extend their winning streak to 10 in a row without too much trouble.
