Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Pick – 6/25/2025

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 25, 2025, both teams are coming off a pivotal game in their three-game series. The Brewers managed to secure victory yesterday, and this matchup could prove crucial as the season progresses. Currently, the Brewers sit at 44-36, showcasing a solid season, while the Pirates struggle with a 32-49 record, reflecting their difficulties throughout the year.

On the mound, Milwaukee is projected to start Jacob Misiorowski, who ranks as the 130th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he is below average. Misiorowski has a tendency to allow 2.0 earned runs on average but struggles with hits and walks, projecting to give up 3.7 hits and 2.1 walks today. His average of 4.6 innings pitched raises concerns about his endurance, especially against a lineup looking to capitalize on his weaknesses.

In contrast, the Pirates will counter with Paul Skenes, who ranks as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB and is considered elite. Skenes projects to pitch 5.9 innings, allowing just 1.7 earned runs, which is exceptional. His ability to strike out 6.7 batters today could be a game-changer, especially against a Brewers lineup that has seen success from its best hitters lately.

Despite the Brewers being favored with a low implied team total of 3.25 runs, their offensive capabilities could tilt the game in their favor, even with Skenes on the mound. With both teams evenly matched, this contest is shaping up to be a thrilling showdown.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Considering that groundball hitters are less effective against groundball pitchers, Paul Skenes (48.2% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 3 GB hitters in the opposing team's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Joey Bart is penciled in 8th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Oneil Cruz hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

When estimating his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Jacob Misiorowski in the 80th percentile among all starting pitchers in Major League Baseball.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Christian Yelich stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 4th-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Milwaukee Brewers with a 20.4% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 26 games (+10.25 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 50 games (+12.80 Units / 22% ROI)
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+6.75 Units / 16% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4, Milwaukee Brewers 3.2

• Date: June 25, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates
  • Jacob Misiorowski - Brewers

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